Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

America Is Burning – Buy!

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SPX made it to the 3100 area as expected, and a bit higher, and is now at the last big inflection point area before a retest of the all time highs. Why is this a big area? Well this is the last big fibonacci retracement level, and there are two significant high levels here, the first rally high after the all time high at 3136.72, and the November 2019 high at 3154.26 made on the move up to the all time high. A break over these levels is fine, but if 3154.26 is converted to support then that opens the way for a possible test of the all time high at 3393.52. That’s a real possibility now, but we should at least see a retracement from this area.

SPX daily chart:

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Staying On Target

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I tweeted an excerpt from my premarket video on Thursday last week where I was talking about the ideal path for ES over the coming days and the plan was to see a high respecting a trendline then in the mid-3060s, seen on Thursday afternoon, then a retracement into the 3000 area, seen on Friday, and then a push into 3100 area for the middle of this week, currently in progress. With the historical stats for today and tomorrow both over 70% green on SPX, I’m thinking that level might be seen before the close tomorrow. We’ll see.

In the short term I have short term wedge resistance on the SPX 15min chart in the 3085-90 area, and that is the next obvious target.

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In Between Days

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SPX gapped up over 3000 this week and has been sustaining trade above it, with retracements. My working assumption is that SPX is on a path to reach my 3100 target area. So how is that looking on the SPX hourly chart?

Well I drew in two high quality possible rising wedge resistance trendlines on my SPX chart a couple of weeks ago and the first was resistance last week and then was gapped over at the weekend. I’m looking at the next one higher and if that was to be hit in the 3100 area, that would likely be towards the end of next week. There is already a possible hourly RSI 14 sell signal brewing but I’d expect SPX to need to go at least a bit higher to deliver a decently formed divergence. Main rising channel support is now in the 2900 area.

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Another Inflection Point

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In my last couple of posts I was writing about the rally scenarios on SPX and was saying that the recent lower high on SPX increased the chance that the retracement from that high was to finish forming a bull flag that would then break up into a minimum target at a retest of the rally high. The close last Friday back over the daily middle band was a pointer that SPX might be breaking back up, and that has followed through into a retest of the rally high, so that bull flag has broken up and played out. So where does that leave SPX now?

Well the first thing to say here is that the economic situation is not improving. The chart below is the Atlanta fed GDP forecast for Q2 2020 and at the moment that is looking like an expected Q2 2020 GDP in the -32% area. That is dire and it would be tempting to say that it is just deranged to think that stocks can head much higher in this environment. That said though, making money on stocks using economic fundamentals analysis has always been a chancy business and, while new all time highs directly from here look very ambitious, we could well see SPX go a bit higher before economic gravity drags SPX down to the lower lows that history strongly suggests will be coming in the next few months.

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The Next Inflection Points

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I was talking on Monday about the decent looking setup for a lower high on SPX, and so it proved to be. What next?

Well the rising wedge from the early May low has broken down and almost entirely retraced. There is some possible support here, but the trend down day that ES/SPX has delivered so far today may well see 2800 support broken and the next obvious move back into the 2750 area.

SPX 5min chart:

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