Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Bull Market in Crypto Could Be Over

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In my last post on Tuesday 14th October I was looking at the double top that had just broken down on Bitcoin. I was leaning towards this rejecting back up to the highs along with equities, but that high retest has been playing out on equities without any meaningful participation so far from Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Solana (SOLUSD), or Ethereum (ETHUSD). Last week Bitcoin actually broke and closed below the weekly middle band, in what was a significant support break.

This is bearish and the odds of that double top on Bitcoin playing out have risen considerably. If that double top plays out then there will likely also be serious further support breaks on Solana and Ethereum of a kind that would suggest that the bull market may have already ended on both, and possibly all three. This is what I wrote at the end of my last post:

‘If Bitcoin does reach the double top target would the bull market be over? No, but it would increase the chance that it might be. I would still be leaning towards at least a retest of the all time high from there but that might be forming a double top that could end this bull market cycle. There would also likely be some serious technical damage done on Ethereum and Solana while that played out.’

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High Quality Patterns from April Low

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I’ve been having a very careful look over the weekend at the longer and shorter term patterns on the main US equity indices to assess the odds of a high forming here and today I’m going to be looking at the patterns from the April low, which are now looking as good or better than they did in early August.

First though, the rally on Friday from the lows was decent, but failed again to close back over the daily middle band, which closed Friday at 6674.42. That was tested as resistance every day last week and if it continues to hold as resistance then we will likely soon see a break below the 50dma, currently at 6565 and which held as support last week.

If we see that break down then the topping patterns I was looking at in my post on Friday will start to break down and may well then make the targets that I was looking at.

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Still Some Decent Looking Topping Patterns Here

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In my post on Monday 6th October I was looking at the negative divergences on SPX and QQQ, with daily RSI 14 and RSI 5 sell signals brewing on both of those. All of those daily sell signals fixed last Friday, with both RSI sell signals also reaching target on Friday. There are now daily RSI 14 sell signals fixed on all of SPX, QQQ, DIA and (weaker signal) IWM. This is suggesting a larger retracement soon to reach those targets.

I was also saying then that until we saw some strong breaks below the daily middle bands on US indices they remained in a strong uptrend from the April low. On Friday they all broke hard below their daily middle bands. Since then SPX and DIA have backtested the daily middle bands but failed to break above, and QQQ and IWM have broken back above but are currently back below at the time of writing. Unless that changes that larger retracement may already be in progress.

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Decent Looking Topping Patterns Here

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In my post on Monday 6th October I was looking at the negative divergences on SPX and QQQ, with daily RSI 14 and RSI 5 sell signals brewing on both of those. All of those fixed on Friday, with both RSI sell signals also reaching target on Friday. There are now daily RSI 14 sell signals fixed on SPX, QQQ, DIA and (weaker signal) IWM. This is suggesting a larger retracement soon to reach those targets.

I was also saying that until we saw some strong breaks below the daily middle bands on US indices they remained in a strong uptrend from the April low. On Friday they all broke hard below their daily middle bands so are all now in a possible topping process for larger retracements than the ones we saw on Friday.

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A Double Top Breaks Down on Bitcoin

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In my post on Tuesday 16th September I was looking at the possibility that we might see a modest retracement (by Crypto standards) on Crypto over the rest of the week and into the end of September, during the last significantly bearish leaning period (on equities) this year.

In my post on Wednesday 24th September I was looking at the possibility that the low on that retracement had been made and giving the obvious targets below in the event that Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Solana (SOLUSD), and Ethereum (ETHUSD) went lower.

As it turned out the short retracement low was in, all three recovered back over their daily middle bands and Bitcoin then made a new all time high.

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