Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Falling Down The Steps

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Well it has definitely been a week to remember, with the coronavirus outbreak taking position front and centre. I was expecting a strong reaction as and when this penny finally dropped, though not this fast I have to say. Let’s review the bigger picture on SPX first.

On the bigger picture I was noting (notes on the chart) at the start of February the stats after the relatively small decline that we had just seen, and we saw the 20% odds reversal candle that sometimes follows such a decline. At that point there were even odds of resuming either the weekly upper band ride or the decline, and SPX has taken the second option, and is now (overnight) below the lower target at the weekly lower band in the 2950 area.

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Some Genuine Coronavirus Numbers Coming Through

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Note from Tim: I’ve put together what I consider a fairly important and, hopefully, useful market update video for Gold and Diamond members which you can get to here. In fact, I consider it one of the most important market updates I’ve ever done.

I’d like to take this opportunity to encourage those of you not at this level to give one of these premium services a try. You can cancel at any time if you find it isn’t making a positive difference for you. Please click here to examine the benefits and to consider signing up. Now, back to Springheel…………

Following on from my post last week about the coronavirus COVID-19 here, we are now seeing some genuine coronavirus numbers coming through, and the numbers at the weekend weren’t great so equity markets are down this morning in response. How bad was the news? Here are this morning’s numbers:

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Peering Through The Fog

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This is an unusual post for me, in that it is not about the markets, but rather about an issue that might be a strong influence on the markets over the next few months, namely the current coronavirus outbreak that has so far been mainly confined to China. I’ll be reviewing what appears to be the cases so far from both official and unofficial sources, and share what I’m watching to assess whether this is likely to remain a mainly Chinese issue, or might spread much wider to become a worldwide one.

Regardless of the numbers though, some aspects of life in Wuhan continue as normal. Here is a recent image of a local resident out walking their dog in a familiar scene that might currently come from any number of large cities in China:

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The January Barometer

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When I looked a few weeks ago at the stat for the first five days of the year I found that the correlation with the yearly close there was essentially random, so I was wondering when I had a look at the full January Barometer stat whether I would find the same but was pleasantly surprised when I did not.

The numbers I was looking were from 1950 to the present, so that’s a good statistical sample, and in that time 72.86% of years closed green, and 27.14% of years closed red, with 61.43% of Januaries closing green in that time and 38.57% of them closing red.

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A Feast Of Numbers

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Between cancer treatments (for my wife) and some serious IT issues I didn’t manage a post last week, and have a bit of a conundrum this week as the post I’d ideally like to have published today would have involved too many charts and and an likely indigestibly large quantity of numbers for a single post. I’ve given this some thought and have decided to do three posts this week. The first one today will look at short term prospects for the market and the implications of the weekly candle last week coming off the weekly upper band ride that has likely just ended.

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