Momentum, money flow, and rate of change have been in downtrend since April of 2016, and have been especially depressed since June of this year, as shown on the following Weekly chart of Equifax (EFX).
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S&P 500 Index: Momentum is Waning
The momentum and rate of change indicators have been making a series of lower highs since July 2016 on the Weekly timeframe of the SPX, as shown below. Price has been climbing along the underbelly of a trajectory (beginning in August 2015) set from the 2009 lows to this year’s highs, as shown on the following Monthly chart.
This is the reality, as the next major (potentially) catastrophic and costly storm (Hurricane Irma) is predicted to hit the U.S. in the next few days. Add this fact to the latest provocations by North Korea, as well as to a gridlocked and divided Congress, along with stagnant wage growth, and it’s difficult to endorse sound reasons for a higher stock market in the coming days/weeks.
BITCOIN: Momentum is Fading
The following Daily chart of Bitcoin shows that the momentum and rate of change technical indicators are fading and do not support the latest push upwards to nearly 5000 (actual high was 4969).
Near-term support sits somewhere between 3770 (40% Fib retracement level) and 4000 (price and channel support).
Medium-term support sits around the 50% Fib retracement level of 3400, while longer-term support sits around the 60% Fib retracement level of 3000, which takes it almost to the bottom of the massive 2134-point August candle, as shown on the Monthly chart below.
U.S. Major Indices: Money Flow and Moving Averages
Further to my post of August 19, the Russell 2000 Index gained the most, in terms of percent, during the past two weeks, as shown on the following graph of the Major Indices for that time period.
It also rallied and closed above its 50 and 200-day moving averages, as shown on the following Daily chart. (more…)
Commodity Leaders and Laggards
The following Year-to-Date and 2-Week graphs show which commodities (and commodity ETFs) have gained and lost the most (in terms of percentage) during those two time periods.
The second graph illustrates the massive 18.92% gains made in Gasoline during these past two weeks…no doubt, in anticipation of, and with respect to, current events surrounding the refinery shut-downs in Texas this week, due to the effects of Hurricane Harvey.
On a Year-to-Date basis, the laggards are WTIC Crude Oil, Brent Crude Oil, and the Agriculture ETF, while Copper leads in gains, followed by other metals.
