Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Day of Reckoning Approaches

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As the SPX:VIX ratio approaches the 100 level, once more, it’s time for equity market participants to take a stance one way or the other.

A drop and hold below 100 will indicate that bears are taking firm control and threaten to take the market down, while a rebound and break and hold back above 150 will indicate that bulls are committing fresh monies into equities. The Momentum indicator has dropped below zero again on the monthly timeframe, indicating that bears are currently in control of the SPX.

MONTHLY CHART SPX:VIX RATIO

Oops!

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With 10 days left before U.S. voters cast their ballots for the next President, we’ve just learned from a variety of news agencies that FBI Director James Comey has reopened their investigation into Hillary Clinton’s handling of sensitive government information due to “the existence of emails that appear to be pertinent to the investigation.”

Price on the SPX immediately dropped on this revelation. This is reflected in the drop shown on the SPX:VIX ratio chart below (as of 1:50 pm ET today)…price is now below the 200 MA, and the 3 technical indicators are displaying new “SELL” signals.

We’ll see whether this new investigation trumps what I mentioned in my last post and becomes the “October surprise” that has been rumoured to surface in the media for months, or whether it’s just a short-term distraction designed to trap market bears.

Either way, volatility will remain elevated as long as price on this ratio stays below the 150 level.