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170 is the next major resistance level to be overcome on the following Daily ratio chart of the SPX:VIX. This appears to be “make or break” time for SPX Bulls. 180 and 192 represent the next and final major hurdles (set in 2014) that will need to be overcome before Bulls can comfortably feel that volatility has been quashed while (if) the SPX resumes any kind of sustainable uptrend.
The following 5-Year Daily ratio charts of the S&P 500 Index compared to Major World Indices shows that the SPX has underperformed all of them since the beginning of this year, and some for the past 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 years.
My post of April 5, 2014 refers.
The following Daily chart of the ES (S&P 500 E-mini Futures Index) shows what happened from that date up to the present. The ensuing swings overshot my projected targets a bit, and it took a bit longer for the “FROTH” level around 2100 to be reached, but price action generally followed the path that I forecast a year ago…price has been consolidating, basically, below that level since December 2014. Additionally, volatility did become the “name of the game” over those weeks and months, as I had anticipated.
The following Year-to-Date Percentage Gained/Lost graphs are presented without individual comment to, simply, show where money has flowed in a variety of world markets since January of this year (until Friday’s close).
This year, the majority of the money has flowed into the Nasdaq, Biotech, Homebuilders, Healthcare, the U.S. Dollar, U.S. Bonds, Silver, Russia, China, Japan, Australia, Germany, France, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, and Spain. The Dow 30, S&P 100, and S&P 500 Indices have remained, basically, flat, while Dow Utilities, Dow Transports, and Nasdaq Transports are down on the year, and Small Caps have made some minor gains.
U.S. MAJOR INDICES
U.S. MAJOR SECTORS + Biotech (more…)
As I mentioned in my post on February 24th, 150.00 is the Bull/Bear Line-in-Sand level for the SPX:VIX ratio, as shown on the updated Daily ratio chart below.
At the moment, price is back above this level, after bouncing in between 160.00ish and 120.00ish since that last post.
