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The World Market Index will need to recapture the 200-day moving average, as well as the 1900 level, as shown on the following Daily chart. Since it’s still under the bearish influences of a moving average Death Cross formation, it’s still vulnerable to a retest of the 50-day moving average, or lower, should we see major world markets plunge…a drop and hold below the 50 level on the RSI could point price in that direction.
My gut tells me that GOLD volatility is about to hit the fan…as long as the RSI remains below the 50 level, and as long as price remains under the bearish influences of the moving average Death Cross, a break and hold below the 1200 level could, finally, see GOLD reach a potential target of 1150 or even 1000 (rather quickly), as I mentioned in my last post on GOLD.
150.00 is the Bull/Bear Line-in-Sand level for the SPX:VIX ratio as shown on the Daily chart below.
Price closed today (Tuesday) at 154.53…failure to hold 150.00 could see a serious correction in equities and possible break of the critical 60.00 level, which has been threatened numerous times since mid-October 2014.
The following Daily chart of the Homebuilders Sector (XHB) shows, that it reached a new 3-year high today (Wednesday), but not a new closing high. However, the RSI, MACD and Stochastics indicators are not yet confirming a move higher. Note the high volume activity since the beginning of this year…signalling major rotation in and out of this sector, perhaps, in readiness for a big move one way or the other.
A break & hold below 1270/60 on Gold could send it tumbling (quite hard this time) to 1150 or lower (ultimately 1000).
1314 is the near-term resistance level to overcome before running into major resistance at 1550, in my opinion, (based on my analysis of price, Fibonacci, channel, and volume profile data), as shown on the 5-Year Weekly chart below.
