Originally published on TheTechTrader.com.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Chart on S&P (Mike Paulenoff)
Yesterday, when I wrote about my perceptions of what would create "crash-event" (panic) conditions in the emini S&P 500 (e-SPM) — a sustained break of 1056, followed by a breach of 1036 — the e-SPM was trading at 1108. Already today, the e-SPM has pressed beneath my "orthodox low" at 1090.75 from 5/07 to a new reaction low at 1074.50, off of the April high 1216.75 (-11.7%). We can see from the enclosed daily chart that 1074.50 does not represent any particular technical significance (support) other than the fact that if the index did not continue to the downside from there then perhaps a condition of near-term bearish exhaustion has set in.
That said, the e-SPM must climb above 1094 to trigger signals that "something ended" at this AM's low of 1074.50 — or 107.95 if tracking the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (SPY). Inability of the e-SPM to hurdle 1094 followed by a resumption of weakness that breaks 1074.50 will point the index towards a full- fledged test of the 5/06 "Flash Crash" low at 1056… and one step closer to "activating" the crash scenario (1056-1036 last cushion zone).
Originally published on MPTrader.com.
Gold & the Dollar (Mike Paulenoff)
On one hand, gold prices cannot seem to catch a bid today, but on the other, spot gold has undergone a very orderly pullback from last Friday's high at $1250.45 to this morning's low at $1206.50 (-3.5%). For a market that needed a correction, the weakness in gold has the right look of a minor pullback within an incomplete upleg off of the Feb low.
Add to the gold analysis, the behavior of the Dollar Index (DXY), which has turned up sharply in the last two hours largely in response to reports of German resistance to approval of the $1 trillion loan package for the entirety of the EC (as distinct from the 22 billion EUR package specifically for Greece), and because of reports of an impending ban on German equity naked short sales. In other words, there are new reasons emerging to exit the EUR in favor of the DXY.
Let's remember that from early Feb to this week, flight into the DXY was accompanied by flight into gold as well. With the DXY poised to reverse to the upside off of its very shallow 2-session pullback, perhaps gold and the gold complex, too, are nearing another sympathetic run on the upside.
Originally published on MPTrader.com.
Harry Boxer’s Charts of the Day
Originally published on TheTechTrader.com.
Euro Under Extreme Pressure (Mike Paulenoff)
If a picture is worth 1,000 words, then in the case of the enclosed 11-year weekly chart of the EUR/USD only one or two are required to put the situation into perspective: WOW! Or, alternatively, YIKES! In recent days, we have discussed the inability of the EUR to mount any sort of rally to regain Sunday evening's short-covering high at 1.3095, which at some point would bring in another round of "liquidators." Appropriately, the "long liquidators" emerged on a Friday, ahead of the European market close, and ahead of the start of the North American session. As of the open the EUR/USD was pressing into new low territory and heading for a test of the prior significant low at 1.2330 (1% beneath current levels) from Oct 2008.
Let's notice that a downside violation of 1.2330 completes a massive 4-year top pattern that could "unhinge" the EUR altogether and send it into a vertical tailspin towards 1.1640/50 on the way to parity with the USD — a move that certainly will get the attention of the ECB and the Fed, which vowed to defend the integrity of the EC last weekend.
Should the aforementioned downward spiral in the EUR emerge throughout today's session, we should prepare for intense and persistent Central Bank intervention, perhaps starting later today, Sunday night, and into Monday, as the "authorities" attempt to brake and preserve the Euro as some (lower) price. This could get very ugly, and is a battle the Central Banks can ill afford to lose, lest the efficacy of the world's institutions be completely undermined.
ETFs to watch are Currencyshares Euro Trust (NYSE: FXE) and the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), which has tended of late to move in sync with the dollar.
Originally published on MPTrader.com.
