Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Gold & Silver Versus Copper & Oil (Mike Paulenoff)

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My pattern work shows that gold and silver are in powerful uptrends, while crude oil and copper could be in the latter stages of completing a multi-month top. Indicative of a problem, perhaps due to China market weakness, for the industrial commodities? For whatever reasons, these commodities are no longer part of a homogenous group, and instead either are attracting or repelling capital inflows based on their own perceived fundamentals. Technically, let's notice that the angle of the 50-day EMA's warns us that the near-term oil and copper trend is in the process of rolling over.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.

Chart Analysis on S&P (Mike Paulenoff)

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At the beginning of last week, when we were going through the process of discovery and extrapolation as a potential topping pattern progressed from a "megaphone" to a "diamond" and then into a breakdown, the two optimal downside targets that we identified all along were 1140 and then 1110-1100. When I look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 via its emini contract, I cannot help but notice that the stair-step decline last Wed-Fri exhibits a "normal" downleg formation if we eliminate the "mysterious plunge" from around 1113.50 to 1056.00.

If you allow me to invoke a bit of artistic license here, what I find I can get my mind around after looking at millions of charts and patterns since 1980 is that the "orthodox low" of the decline from the April 26 high at 1216.75 actually occurred at 1090.75 Friday morning. Again, when we view the period of weakness from 1216.75 to 1090.75, eliminating the "crash event," it has the "right look" of a well-proportioned, completed bearish downleg that since has experienced a recovery rally back to a key near-term resistance plateau between 1160 and 1180, which for the time being has thwarted the upmove.

Ok, so if you indulge me about the "orthodox" pattern, now what? My hourly pattern work indicates that if something important ended on the downside last Friday at 1090.75, this morning's weakness should hold above 1132 and then loop to the upside for a climb above yesterday's recovery high at 1162 into the 1180 area next. Such a scenario will leave behind a bullish "construction" from 1090.75 to 1175/80 (for example), after which I will be looking to buy pullbacks once again.

Conversely, if the e-SPM fails to climb above 1162 before it declines beneath 1132, my pattern work will argue that the entire bearish, or corrective, period off of the high remains intact and dominant, and points to a retest and a possible violation of 1090.75 on the way to a "normal, non-crash event" next target zone of 1060/50. Today could be a pivotal session for the indices, and will confirm to us if the intermediate-term bull market or the near-term correction has the upper hand.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.

Harry Boxer’s Charts of the Day

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Greetings from 6 miles up in the sky! Yep, I'm using Internet on an airplane for the first time, and it is too, too cool. It is totally fast, and it's probably the best $5 I've ever spent.

Anyway, I had fun looking at some of the recent comments. Nice to see Doolie made it back safely. We all had such a good time, I suspect getting a larger SlopeFest together would be pretty easy, although next time I'm cutting Gilly off at ten drinks. Anyhoo………



Originally published on TheTechTrader.com.

Chart on EWG (Mike Paulenoff)

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While everyone is fixed on Greece (for good reason), why don’t we look at the pattern developing in the German equity market, just to keep an eye on the country within the EU that is on the hook for the lion’s share of money to be loaned to the PIIGS. After all shouldn’t the health of the creditor nation’s equity index be telling?

Purely from a technical perspective, the 14-month chart pattern of the iShares Germany Index Fund ETF (NYSE: EWG) depicted by the enclosed graphic shows a 7-month uptrend juxtaposed against an 8 1/2-month top. In fact, we can make the case that the EWG’s rounded top formation is so formidable that my work is warning me to expect a potential parabolic downside round trip that first revisits the July low at 16.75 on the way back to the Mar ’09 low at 12.47. Yes, that is so difficult to believe, but that is what this picture reflects.

From an extreme near-term basis, however, I would not be surprised to see the EWG spend some time in a relief rally that grinds up towards 20.00 prior to resuming weakness towards new post-crash lows. If such a scenario unfolds, then it will be discounting forthcoming problems in Germany’s commitment to the rest of the EC – to put it mildly.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.