Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Wave Analysis on USD’s Declining Pattern (by Avi Gilburt)

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The USD is still following the Elliott Wave script that we have laid out over the last several months. In fact, it has followed that pattern almost to the penny over these months.  Currently, most indications point to the USD continuing to follow this same pattern, targeting much lower levels in the months ahead.

Two weeks ago, I wrote the following:

If you listen to many of the market analysts discussing the dollar and its relationship to the metals or the equity markets, it seems as though there is much confusion.  The confusion is due to the seeming “correlations” between the dollar and “risk” assets that are no longer holding true.  In fact, many were expect that a rally in the USD would coincide with a decline in the metals and the equity market.  But, we have recently been witnessing a break within these correlations.

It is for this reason that I continually stress that each chart MUST be analyzed on its own, and it is faulty analysis to base a significant amount of your analysis of a particular chart purely on what another chart is doing.  This leaves an analyst in a befuddled state when the seeming correlations disappear just as easily as they initially appeared.  This is what is now happening to many in the financial world, as they scramble to figure out what is happening.”

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Rotation into Mining? (by Mike Paulenoff)

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Gold miners definitely are the forgotten sector of the rally from the October 2011 low in the S&P 500 at 1074.77 to this week's high at 1419.15. This rally amounts to a 32% climb, compared to the performance of the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which is down 2.7% since its October 2011 low.

However, there just might be some cause for optimism, that the Street might feel compelled to rotate into the miners from other frothy sectors. Let's notice that the weakness off of the September 2011 peak has taken the form of a declining wedge formation, which in and of itself represents a correction that is nearing completion, rather than a major top ahead of a bear market.

Furthermore, Thursday's minor upside reversal came after the GDX hit a new multi-month low at 48.05, which held just above, and bounced off of, important multi-year support at 47.50. Thurday's low was not confirmed by daily momentum, or by MACD, which is climbing towards a near-term buy signal.

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