Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Where AAPL Should Peak (by Paulenoff)

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My near-term work shows Apple (AAPL) at very overbought levels for the most recent upleg from the Dec 31 low at 321.31 to today's new all-time high at 346.64.  My pattern work has identified the next optimal swing target window at 346.40- 349.60 for a peak and the initiation of a correction in AAPL.

Of course, with 350 just above my next measured objective, and because many research analysts on the Street have 350 as their current 52 week target, let's not be surprised by a pop to 350. In fact, a 1% overshoot of my target will take AAPL to 352.50, which is just 1.8% above the price as we speak.

Putting all of this together, we get an optimal target zone of 349.00-352.50 prior to the onset of a correction. Lastly, AAPL earnings are due out next Tuesday after the close. If the stock remains overbought, and still bouyant into next Tuesday's close, then a sell-the-news set-up — and a potential lower buying opportunity — will be in place. 

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.

Favorable Near-Term Set-Up for China ETF (Paulenoff)

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This morning's announcement by the Bank of China to allow U.S. trading firms and individuals to open accounts (in its NY branch) to buy and sell yuan might have signaled a significant move by Chinese authorities to let the currency both freely trade and to allow market forces to push its value higher — to avert criticism prior to the China Premier's visit to Washington next week.

A higher yuan has self-serving interests as well, with China battling inflationary concerns, all of which likely has contributed to today's up-gap strength that has propelled the iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (FXI) towards a test of its prior rally peak at 45.18 (from Dec 2).

Can the China market decline into a state visit? Possible, but unlikely, don't you think… especially in the highly interventionist world in which we find ourselves. That aside, the near-term technical set-up remains very favorable for higher prices that hurdle 45.18 on the way to 47.00-48.00.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.