Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Chart on Gold Miners ETF (Mike Paulenoff)

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Just in case you want to see a real live example of channel analysis, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) is a textbook case. The enclosed 3-month uptrend has carved out a spectacular bullish channel, which we notice rocketed through the channel resistance line yesterday morning (above 58.55) prior to reversing back beneath the upper channel line.

In classic channel behavior, the GDX reversed from above to below the channel resistance line, and then continued to decline across the entire width of the channel right into the area of the lower channel support line (55.80), where it preserved the integrity of the channel, pivoting to the upside late yesterday afternoon.

Today's rally argues strongly from a technical perspective that yesterday's downside channel traverse in and of itself represented a completed near-term correction. If that is accurate, then the GDX has just started a new upleg that projects to new highs near 60 next. Only a decline that breaks the lower channel boundary at 55.90/80 compromises the still constructive technical and chart set-up.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.

Chart on Oil (Mike Paulenoff)

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For better or worse, richer or poorer, my big picture pattern work on oil continues to warn me that I should treat the May decline from $87.15 to $64.24 as the first downleg either in a large, incomplete correction, or the first downleg in a bear market for oil.
The only way to invalidate those scenarios will occur on a price climb that hurdles $87.15. Barring upside continuation, the bearish scenarios projects to an optimal target of $63-$58. Whether or not today’s weakness represents the end of the “recovery rally” or just a pause prior to yet another surge towards the May high is too early to tell. However, as of this moment, the nearby oil price action has the potential to put in a significant downside reversal day, which is a strong signal that a near-term trend change has occurred for oil.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.