Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Backtest (by TnRevolution)

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Happy Post-Thanksgiving Slope!

I will keep today's post brief, but as I believe this chart is important… Here we go.

SPX112312

As I described in my last post, the wedge that has developed on SPX over the past 2 years has broken, and is now backtesting the wedge breakdown.  I continue to believe that the wedge breakdown was very significant, and is ushering in a large bearish move in the weeks/months to come.  You will notice in the chart above that the MACD trendline break is also being backtested, as well as approaching the zero line.  Daily stochs are also approaching overbought territory.  A reversal here is likely, and could lead to the large bearish move that I have been stalking.  Have a great weekend Slope!

Volatility Cometh (by TnRevolution)

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Good afternoon Slope.  Two quick charts today.  First, on the VIX, notice the falling wedge on the hourly chart.  $VIX broke out of the wedge in July, has fallen back to retest the wedge, followed by a nice base with mulitple positive MACD divergences.  Lastly, take a look at the nice rising wedge that has formed on JPM.  The financials are about to experience some nice volatility.  Bring it on!

VIX82112

JPM82112

Russell Analog (by TnRevolution)

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Good evening Slope!  I wanted to take a look tonight at a market structure within the Russell 2000 that I am tracking.  As you know, the Russell has yet to break its 2011 high, diverging from SPX.  Let's take a look at how the Russell formed its 2011 top, and see if there is anything we can gain from it.

Below is a daily chart of the Russell.  Notice the three key peaks I have noted.  Peak 1 is the ultimate high that was formed.  After the high, there are two additional key peaks that were made.  Peak 2 came close to testing the highs, but failed.  It then made a slight retracement, before quickly moving back up to form Peak 3.  Peak 3 also failed to reclaim Peak 2.  When the trendline breaks, connecting the June '11 lows through July '11 lows, a collapse ensues. 

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Boom! (by TnRevolution)

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Good Sunday afternoon Slope.  First off, with all due respect to my good friend BDI, when I say "Boom", I am anticipating an explosive move to the downside.  As you can probably gather from that statement, my flirtation with the bullish side of the market over the past 6 weeks has come to an end.  The great Bearish Rev has returned!  Let's take a look as to why.

To start with, let's look at our old friend EWP vs SPX.  Divergences in this comparison chart have served well over the past couple years to indicate short and medium term turning points in SPX.  As you can see in the chart below, EWP is currently showing a negative divergence.  In my opinion, any further upside in the markets next week, are an opportunity to sell longs, and build short positions.

EWP8512

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