Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Crumblin’ Down

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Happy December 26th to you Slope. As we begin to close the book on 2024 and look forward towards 2025, I thought it was a good time to look back at my primary call for 2024. This year I was focused on Tom McClellan’s 10-year crude oil analog, and what it was forecasting for the 2024-2026 time period. Let’s take a look.

You can read Tom discussing the analog here, just after the 2020 Covid crash. In the article he states:

“I first discovered this relationship back in 2008, when I looked at a log-scaled long-term chart of crude oil prices and noticed that it looked an awful lot like the chart of the DJIA.  So, I put the two on a chart together but was not really satisfied with the way that the pattern details lined up.  After some tinkering, I found that offsetting the crude oil plot forward by 10 years made for a much better fit between the two plots.

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Half a Hundred

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Happy June to my Slope family! Since we are knocking around the window of time, I’m looking for a major top in the stock market, I wanted to review some charts I think are set up to take advantage of a possible bearish second half to 2024.  I was looking around the internet last night to see if there were any important happenings around this date to mark this important occasion.  I came across a few… 

Today is Elizabeth Hurley’s birthday.  Meow.  It’s also Sundar Pichai’s birthday.  No meow.  Not exactly what I was looking for… and then I found the below.  On this date in history, June 10th, something electric happened.

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Russell Watching

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Happy Friday, Slope! We made it through another week, and thankfully for the bears it has been a solid red week thus far. My primary focus remains on the Russell 2000. The chart of IWM is shown below. I will continue to highlight two areas. First, there is a significant POC cluster coinciding with value high this month that is serving as key resistance at the moment. That area is highlighted in red. Second, the October lows of last month are serving as key support. This support goes back to the pre-Covid highs. As we venture out into the remainder of November, I will give you three scenarios:

  • The bullish scenario in my mind would involve IWM reversing back higher and breaking above value high at 177.2.
  • I think key support for IWM going forward is going to be the October 2023 lows of 161.67.  A consolidation scenario would involved retesting that low this month, but not breaking under it.  This would allow for some consolidation of the past few months to take place as we head into the end of the year.
  • The bearish scenario in my mind is to break under the October lows of IWM this month.  This is a capitulation scenario in my mind.  Under the October lows is a lot of open air for the bears to roam into.  How far and how fast that happens is a choice I’ll leave to you.
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