Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

A Revolutionary 2021

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As I look forward into 2021, I want to paint a broad picture of what to look for directionally, as well as key turning points to be aware of.  I will focus on the two main trades I am most excited about, SPX and crude oil.  As we examine the below charts and analogs, consider them as a rough guide, using crayon not pencil.

SPX Forecast
Let’s begin by taking a look at the broader market via SPX.  To gain a big picture forecast view of SPX I prefer to utilize the 10 year crude oil to SPX analog.  This analog was discovered by Tom McClellan, and looks back to see what crude oil was doing ten years ago to give us a glimpse of what to expect with the broader market now.  A note on this analog, and the other analogs I will discuss in this post; they will look to show you direction and key turning points to be on the lookout for.  They do not reflect the magnitude of the move to expect.

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Ecce Homo

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You have a next-door neighbor. His name is Sam. He seems like a decent guy and seems to do all right for himself. And, for the purposes of this allegory, you happen to know a lot about Sam’s financial situation.

First off, he makes a good living. He pulls down $200,000 a year. Impressive! So he is able to sell whatever goods and services he has available and is willing to provide for that sum each year. Well done, Sam. It’s a good income.

Oh, he’s also $250,000 in debt. But big deal, right? After all, plenty of people have debt. Mortgages, for one thing. Debt is part of life. he’s on time with his payments. So lay off. His “debt to annual production” is 125%.

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