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I’ve mentioned Pier One (PIR) on Tastytrade and here on Slope many times over the past year as a prospective short, because it has an insane parallel with its performance during the financial crisis. We appear to be in full swing now, and I suspect – as before – this purveyor of tiki torches, throw pillows, herbal tea, and various and sundry crap from around the world will be heading into penny-stock-land once more.
The Alcoa Analog (read about it here) was one of the cleanest trades I’ve suggested all year. It preceded a virtually uninterrupted plunge lower. I assumed that once it reached its long-term trendline, it would find support and gain strength. Nope – check out the chart below. The price fell well below the trendline, and, wouldn’t you know it, the trendline is now acting as resistance. It looks like Alcoa is going to remain quite ill.
The best thing about weekly scheduled “news” events is that they can offer volatility and entertainment. The worst thing is that unsuspecting retailers regarding them as actual “news” and don’t recognize news events and scheduled releases for the scams that they truly are.
This week’s exhibit in the you-can’t-make-this-stuff-up category is none other than light, sweet, and lately crude West Texas Intermediate.
As all know my specialty is the Volatility Trade, and the weekly chart gives me a good view of the climate. It looks like it is paralleling last year somewhat. I am looking at three more weeks of this, and maybe a SPY visit down to the 190’s. Then expect a late summer rally into mid September, for a nice fall swoon. However, I will let my charts and signals guide me though. (more…)
