Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

A Sloper’s Roadmap

By -

Some weeks ago, a reader wrote to me with his roadmap of the market, comparing 2008 with 2011. He just wrote me again, minutes ago, to remind me of the roadmap. Here's a portion of his email:

Sorry to hear you've been dealing with some trolls on your site of late. Anyway, you were kind enough to post my S&P Roadmap a month and a half ago. While I think its obnoxious when people tell you they were right about the market in hindsight, my S&P Roadmap has worked perfectly since its first posting on your site.  I'd love it if you'd post the attached chart as the similarities are breathtaking and I believe we just completed Leg 13 (rally up, corresponds to May 2008).  Perhaps it will add some clarity to a very murky market picture. I just loaded up on Jan 2012 124 Puts.  I have to trade a map that has worked so far!!

I have to admit, it's a really amazing analog. Here's the image; please click on it for a bigger picture with more clarity:

1027-roadmap

Dead Man’s Party

By -

I am doing this post on my Macintosh, so the charts aren't going to have giant symbols slapped on them like they normally do. Also, this is the kind of post I'd usually do in a video, but I'm just doing it with text and still images, so I can already tell it's going to be Big Enough To Be Seen From Space ™.

Although eleven charts follow, the general theme is the same: that is, a prospectively terrific shorting opportunity with the caveat that a surprise announcement from Big Nose, Blubber Butt, or Uncle Ben could shatter the Spring 2008/Autumn 2011 analog into a million pieces.

We start with the ES, which escaped the confines of its eleven-week-long trading range just yesterday. We are rushing headlong into the underbelly of that trendline, which would put us at about 1265 to 1270. If that line is broken as definitely as the recent trading range, well, God help us – – we could be on our way to 1300 or even 1330 in the coming weeks.

Picture 1

The NASDAQ Composite not only have shoved its price deep into the overhead supply from earlier this year, it has even penetrated above its former resistance level, shown in red. The small caps have been emphatically stronger lately. Today, for instance, the Russell was up about three times as much as the S&P 500.

(more…)

NASDAQ Moving Averages

By -

I know that saying anything bearish is likely to get me booed off stage, but I'd like to offer the following: below are the 50, 100, and 200-day simple moving averages for the NASDAQ Composite index. I've put an arrow at the points in 2008 and today where I think things line up pretty nicely from an analog perspective.

1024-COMPQAVERAGES

For what it's worth (which may be $0.00 in this market), I've circled the approximate place where prices were in 2008 corresponding to the above arrow. What it suggests is, yes, some more upside, but a market that is broken enough to fall heartily later.

1024-COMPQLOCATION

Of course, as long as we continue to be held hostage by the-announcement-that-never-comes, it hardly matters.