Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Has Crude Oil Reached Near-Term Downside Exhaustion?

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Today’s upside reversal action comes on the heels of a bearish Inventory Report, and from a new low in the vicinity of important, intermediate-term support at $38.90, which represents the 50% retracement level of the entire Feb- Aug advance.

In addition, buying interest emerged at the lower-boundary zone of the June-July down-sloping corrective price channel, classic action into downside channel exhaustion.

Of course, Oil must preserve today’s gains, and follow-through to the upside to confirm a significant turn.

The action so far today is very promising technically– and provides preliminary evidence that Oil has completed the correction of its initial, intermediate-term recovery period.

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Gold vs. Commodities

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The signals of gold vs. other assets and markets have become so important to financial markets over the last year (hello Macrocosm, July 27 2015) that I have created a standard segment in NFTRH called ‘Gold vs.‘.  The segment regularly checks up on gold vs. stock markets, currencies, bonds and of course, commodities.

Here is the state of the latter.  After the chart I’ll summarize some of the market signals.

au.crb

  • Au-CRB is in a long-term uptrend.  This uptrend has been in place since late 2014, when not coincidentally, volatile market disturbances started to erupt.  The uptrend is in place, indicating a generally counter cyclical global atmosphere.  If gold breaks down vs. cyclical CRB the ‘inflation’ play would drive hot money out to other areas beyond gold mining.  If not, the favored gold mining fundamental backdrop will have held up.

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