Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
618 Days Plus Timing (By eMiniSchool.com)
From the March 09' low we are now 618 days into the future and 618 is a key number (.618% or 1.618%). Breaking it down further on the weekly chart we have 127 bars up from the same low and 127 is also a very important number 1.270%.
On the weekly there has been 888 days from the low. So if you take 888 and divide it by 127 you will get 6.99. Take that and square root it a few times and you will get to what? 127 and 127 is how many bars we have had up on the weekly so there is a cluster there on the 127 ratio.
If you break down to the daily chart we have had 618 bars up on 894 days. Also on the daily chart the TR or the Time Retrace is .01274. Notice how on the daily we get a time retrace of .01274 which is very close to the weekly chart numbers of 1.270. Also on the daily we have 7.8517 Ppb (points per bar). Take 7.8517 and divide by 618 and you get .0127 again!
All of these numbers came where? On the move down to symmetry support and we noted the levels ahead of time and none of the markets have closed below the support numbers. In fact, we had a 800 point bounce from the support levels.
We are not saying that the low holds 100% because who really knows for sure but there is a calculation here that we went over so you can do with it what you want. Going back on every major turning point there has been both time and price relevance.
Some people believe and some do not and we are not here to try to convince anyone of anything but we hope you can find some value along the way and apply it to your trading.
Happy Trading,
www.eMiniSchool.com
http://wwweminischool.wordpress.com/
PS. We do have short term resistance from the last high on the 60 minute chart in both time and price as well but it is only 40% so it is not that great but it could get us back down to the 11,000.
ABX+GDX Calls
We like ABX and GDX both for calls. It is basically the same trade so we would pick which one you like the best. GDX target is $67 on the current leg and ABX target would be $57. There are higher targets but these would be the levels we would look to scale out of the calls.
We had a buy signal last Thursday on both of these stocks but since then they are not up much so they are still valid here.
Short GLD and buy GDX would be a good trade here.
Happy Trading,
www.eMiniSchool.com
http://wwweminischool.wordpress.com/2011/08/16/gdx-sept-62-calls/
Ratios and Symmetry (By eMiniSchool.com)
In the last posts we were noting the symmetry levels on the support side of the market. The ES,TF, and DOW all came down and hit the symmetry support but none of them closed below the support levels. The only one that did not hit the symmetry support was the NQ (it came close).
We received emails saying we were crazy for putting out support levels as the market was falling and how "this time" the market is different so the levels do not mean anything. It seems like every time the market starts to try to make a top it is always "different" from before but in reality it is no different.
If you look at the charts above we noted the symmetry going up. We did this so you can see how the calculation has worked in the past. It is up to you if you want to follow the levels or ignore them but you will see using the calculation it would have told you where the turning points were. These turning points are part of how we get symmetry for the entire pattern.
The top chart is the last high. Going from the 09 low there was 55 bars up (55 is a important number). From that high we pulled back and from that low we went up 36 bars. Divide those and you will get 1.5262 then divide that by two (Two Waves up) and you will get .763 and you will see how the last high was at the .763
Go to the bottom chart and we broke down that first leg into two minor waves. First leg up 29 bars and the second leg up 35, divide those and you will get 1.21 and divide by two and you will get .605% and you will see how that number picked the high in April 09'.
We cannot say for sure that the symmetry support where we are now will hold forever and it is not there to tell us that but it is there to tell us if the trend is still true or if it has changed and now is false. If the up wave becomes false that is when we get a true trend reversal.
There is minor and major symmetry and the last posts on our blog are noting the major symmetry levels. If we bounce up from where we are now and then fail to take out the high and roll back over we will be breaking symmetry support and fall to the inverse of symmetry. If you go back and understand how to get the calculation you will see it picks it almost every time.
We also used this in our AAPL timing Video here: http://eminischool.blogspot.com/2011/07/aapl-timing-video.html
To get the symmetry support on the markets use this link and go back through the last couple of pages and we have noted all the markets. http://wwweminischool.wordpress.com/ ( we will update the levels again tomorrow night on the wordpress blog)
Happy Trading,
www.eMiniSchool.com
PS. If you take the first 605% and the second .763% and add them together you will get 1.368 then divide that by two you will get .684%. Take that and divide it again by two and you will get .35 which is the average symmetry support for all the markets right now.
AAPL Follow up+Futures (By eMiniSchool)
This is a follow up video from the AAPL timing high video. If AAPL closes below last weeks low we would have a bearish engulf at price and time resistance.
The market had a wild day breaking the symmetry but it is important to know that the symmetry was what we consider to be minor meaning; since the March 09 low the pullbacks have been very shallow and today we broke out of that shallow type corrective condition.
This is the first ABC from the high so it is still labeled bullish even though it feels bearish. Yes, the pattern as it goes could turn to a bearish pattern but that is still a few legs away. We say that it is the last bullish pattern that fails is what starts a new direction so we need to find a low bounce and then fail before we can say the high is in for sure.
We are coming up to the next support so we would be aware of a big reversal day coming soon if not tomorrow.
Happy Trading,
Original AAPL Video: http://eminischool.blogspot.com/2011/07/aapl-timing-video.html
July 20th 78% time resistance video: http://eminischool.blogspot.com/2011/07/fib-time-video.html
