Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

When Patterns Fail

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It should go without saying that I like patterns. I see them everywhere: not just in charts, but in physical objects, human behavior, and events in my life. There’s even a term for it – apophenia – which isn’t necessarily a laudatory title. It can suggest seeing patterns where there really aren’t any.

As the proprietor of this little corner of the web, I try to do a good job showing patterns that I see, but there are certainly times when a given pattern – – even a remarkably good one – – can “go sideways“, as the expression goes. That is to say, it starts to do what it shouldn’t do, and it ruins the pattern. Here are a few examples from some long-term continuous futures contracts that I just thumbed through, and I’ve marked or highlighted the areas where things went bad.

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Commiseration Buffet

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I suspect some of you here have had a lousy 2023 so far. Obviously I’m referring to the equity bears, which I tend to attract. Most folks in my position have a habit of bloviating about the good news in their life and hiding the bad, but I’m a bit of a freak in that I reveal the bad stuff too.

I’d like to share with you how, a mere two weeks into the trading year, things has already been going badly for me. This is a gift to at least two sets of people (a) those whose year has sucked so far and will feel less alone (b) anyone who dislikes me and gets off on suffering in my own life. Thus:

  • I’m down in the low double-digits (percentage) so far;
  • Of my 18 positions, two, count ’em, two, are showing a profit.
  • It’s completely plausible that 2023 is a big “up” year, which will make things worse.
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