Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Riding Out the Storm

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Between Market Sniper’s death, and the nearly 50% rise in the market over the past month, I’m in a worse-than-melancholic mood. I wanted to share a few thoughts about my own risk disposition.

From late February through late March, I felt like Charles Lindbergh waving to the crowds of Manhattan during a ticker tape parade. From late March until late April, I felt like I was tied to a chair while the ghost of Charles Lindbergh urinated directly into my face. It’s been miserable, even though year-to-date I’m probably ahead of way more than 90% of traders. But still – – Jesus, man, I’ve hated this month.

It doesn’t help that the ES seems absolutely poised to break above its bullish cup with handle pattern.

escup
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Just Screw It

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There are few things more boring and pointless than hearing someone tell you about “the one that got away.” By its very nature, trading generates countless missed opportunities, and anyone who has done this for a while has approximately zero interest in hearing about the big fish that got away. It’s got to be as boring as listening to someone tell you about a dream they had last night.

I’m not here to write a post about the countless profits I let slip away last quarter, but I would like to share a tale of “blowing it” that I think informs my decisions in the immediate future.

Back in mid-February, I did something which I had not done in years, which was buy puts on individual stock. I had reason to believe that Nike (NKE) was going to weaken, so I bought some puts. When I buy options, they tend to be quite conservative. Specifically, I bought some puts that were in the money and didn’t expire for months.

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Sleepless in Shallow Alto

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As I begin this post, it’s 4:30 in the morning. I’ve been awake since 1:30. I’m usually a brilliant sleeper. I close my eyes and 10 and fall asleep instantly, and then I wake up at 5:20 a.m. with no alarm and get my day started. Not this time. It’s been too crazy.

Think of what’s transpired. Last Wednesday, the market was at the highest levels in human history (which is a little peculiar, since the whole “virus” thing was well known and spreading fast). Yesterday, we had the biggest drop on the Dow in human history. Added to which, this has been the shortest 10%+ drop in equities in human history. Absolutely incredible.

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