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It’s a pure green morning, folks, and there’s no doubt that the world is front-running the CPI number, which will roll out in less than twenty-four hours. Thus, for the second time, the bulls are trying to reach escape velocity from the nearly month-long base they’ve hammered out between 3800 and 3920 on the /ES futures market.
Everyone and their mother has been chanting “Santa Claus Rally!” since Thanksgiving. I’ll first note that some here have posted that the true Santa Claus Rally is a specific time period AFTER Christmas through January 2 and is supposed to yield some insight into what the next year holds. So just hold on to your Santa sacks until then.
As for what I expect in the first quarter, everyone is looking for this market to bottom and go long. Hell, permabull Fundstrat Tom Lee has to be right some time if he is bullish the entire way down. But one big thing missing before we find a bottom in this market is the combination of “good news is bad/ bad news is worse” reactions. So far, we have had part 1 of that combination, just take a look initial reactions to today’s GDP numbers. But still missing is part 2. We have had this flip flop of expected reactions to most numbers, especially since October. Most reactions to bad numbers have been very optimistic which does not make for good bottom. In fact, it just lends to the murkiness of the short term moves, but overall the bigger move still looks like it is down. I think next earnings season will start to change the mentality a bit.
(more…)Holy crap!
We’re planning on spending Christmas at our place in Northstar, but I had lost track of how expensive ski lift tickets have become. Back when my wife and I were young, we could enjoy a full day skiing at Alta (Utah) for $25. Check THESE prices out now! Ten TIMES as much. Ai-eeeeeeeeeee! This is for ONE person, ONE day of skiing.
