Now that all the breathless anticipation of the CPI amounted to a hill a beans in the end, but here’s the projection for the Producer Price Index, which the last two months precisely met projections:
As for Thursday’s PPI…
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It Is Accomplished
Well, THAT was weird.
I come to you from my pitch-black home office (pretty much my favorite condition in the world) as I eagerly awaited the CPI to come out. It is, as of this typing on my keyboard, only a couple of minutes after the release.
At about 30 seconds before the release, I leaned in to my futures quotes and watched with intent interest. The following took place:
- The futures were all green throughout the night, in anticipation of some kind of “coiled spring” explosive move higher;
- About 10-15 seconds before the top of the hour, futures went ROARING higher, and I said (out loud, even though I was alone) “That’s not good.” I figured they must have accidentally released them a little early, and the number was obviously soft. The /ES was up about 48 points.
- Then it was up 35 points, then 16, and then it went negative. Then it went into a free-fall.
These Are the Expectations
CPI 2022
Someone suggested I input the dates of the Consumer Price Index reports (like the one we’re going to get this upcoming Wednesday) into Event Markers, so I’ve done so below. It isn’t exactly eye-opening, since there doesn’t seem to be much correlation. All the same, I think Wednesday morning’s figure will be very closely watched, considering the mayhem it unleashed last time.
