As we approach a full month of the government being shut down, we find ourselves living in a data desert. A rare exception came this morning in the form of the Consumer Price Index, which was a little lower than expectations.
CPI (Finally)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Annual Bars to Consider
Instead of the normal daily bar charts, let’s do something unusual and check out a much cruder granularity: annual bars. That’s right – – just a single bar to represent the billion things that take place inside a calendar year.
Below is the SPY going back for about eighty years. I have highlighted with rectangles two portions to make a particular point.
Half Decade of Inflation
You think the 23% increase we’ve seen in the U.S. is bad? Take a gander at Argentina’s 2,164% rate! Whoever bought gold in that country years ago is sitting pretty.
Post-PCE Charts
The Fed’s favorite inflation number (and most boring chart) was just updated, and the predicted 0.2% figure was nailed, as it usually is.
Market Talk, Economy & Bond Market
A premium excerpt from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 876
Market Talk
At this point, far into the broad market recovery rally with gold stocks so close to the primary target (HUI 500+/-) I want to make sure I am speaking clearly as a human, rather than mechanically as a TA or macro funda dork. That will probably shorten this report and possibly the next few reports to come, until something big happens.
Big? Well, a broad top and breakdown would be big. A Fed policy shift would be big. A significant US Dollar rally would be big (given it would be against a government that seems bent on devaluation), a precious metals upside blowout and reversal, a commodity failure, a precipitous decline in long-term Treasury yields, or a resumed rise in those yields. All big.
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