The Fed’s favorite inflation number (and most boring chart) was just updated, and the predicted 0.2% figure was nailed, as it usually is.
Post-PCE Charts
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Market Talk, Economy & Bond Market
A premium excerpt from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 876
Market Talk
At this point, far into the broad market recovery rally with gold stocks so close to the primary target (HUI 500+/-) I want to make sure I am speaking clearly as a human, rather than mechanically as a TA or macro funda dork. That will probably shorten this report and possibly the next few reports to come, until something big happens.
Big? Well, a broad top and breakdown would be big. A Fed policy shift would be big. A significant US Dollar rally would be big (given it would be against a government that seems bent on devaluation), a precious metals upside blowout and reversal, a commodity failure, a precipitous decline in long-term Treasury yields, or a resumed rise in those yields. All big.
(more…)PP Ay-Yi-Yi
On rare occasions, I’ll actually think of something smart and insightful to say, and I stumbled upon one of those instances during my tastylive broadcast. In mentioning that the PPI numbers would be out soon, I off-handedly remarked that even though the CPI numbers showed no inflation, perhaps the PPI numbers would come in hot since they are further up on the supply chain and might be affected by the tariffs first. It was just a throwaway line, but lo and behold, the numbers just came out and the PPI is almost FIVE TIMES the anticipated value. How’s 10.8% inflation sound, everybody?
Immediate CPI Reaction
The CPI numbers have hit, and for the first time in half a year, the expectation actually met reality.
Inflation Week Ahead
After a very quiet period on the economic data front, we’ll be faced with a bunch of market movers next week. The big one is Tuesday morning’s CPI. What will Trump do if inflation comes in hot? I don’t know, I guess fire the people that generated them.
