Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Gold’s Decade-Long Bull Run is Dead (by biiwii)

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…says Gartman.  From Forbes entry in the 'Running of the Goldbugs, 2012' sweepstakes:

Bernanke delivered the fatal blow to gold’s ten year bull market, according to Dennis Gartman.   Gold has been in bear territory since the summer of 2011, when it topped out above $1,900 an ounce, with the latest post-FOMC sell-off inflicting irreparable technical damage, he says.

Well close Dennis.  But let's fine tune a little:  Unbridled panic-fueled momentum drove gold unsustainably higher as it took a mini blow off and very predictable correction.  Gold is not broken in its secular bull market (and not necessarily even the cyclical one out of 2008) by any rational technical parameters.  Not as of this writing and thus, not as of your little Forbes piece with the alarmist headline.  'Irreparable technical damage' Dennis?  Where?

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Gold’s Real Price and the Investment Case for the Miners

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As the HUI index of premier gold miners continues to chop and grind its way through ongoing correction, the idea for those who understand that this unique sector of the stock market stands to gain during phases of economic contraction, is to survive. The idea is to remain strong (and by strong I mean have cash to exploit the intensifying value proposition) and be ready for opportunity, which is likely to present itself to nearly the extreme witnessed in Q4, 2008.

Now, I don't expect nominal HUI to decline to anywhere near the 150 level that was so compelling a buy in 2008, when quality explorers were selling for net cash, gold in ground for free. But as the index grinds around looking for a bottom, whether it be in the ongoing consolidation or a final washout, the opportunity should be in the same 'no brainer' territory as it was in '08.

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The Hero

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The Headline reads "Ben Bernanke saved the global economy.  So why does everyone hate him?"

I don't know for sure why everyone hates him; he seems like a nice enough fellow.  But it could have something to do with the smug, myopic and academic surety with which he goes about his business of remotely managing an economy that should be allowed to purge itself of the excess leverage and unmanageable debt that has been systematically layered in over the years, enriching some and relatively impoverishing many.

It could be because people who care enough to see through the headlines know that he is systematically employing more of what already brought the system to this sorry state.  They hate him because he and his ego are reworking the Treasury market to paint a desired picture that all is well and good.  They hate him because being astute enough to extrapolate forward, they know that what he is doing paints things a certain way in the short term (for short term benefits to some) while hard wiring in future damage that would continue the progression – measured over years in the era of Inflation onDemand – of ever rising moral hazards.

I don't hate him, because that emotion is counter productive when it comes to managing this mess.  He is just the self-satisfied face of those entities that would seek to destroy me (and my big picture investment stance) if I were to allow that to happen.

Look at him… look into those eyes… look at the powerful monetary god casting his gaze upon you.  He cannot hurt you if you understand his modus operandi and his true mission, which is to inflate the banking system out of a black hole that was created by policy the likes of which is being employed today.  Feel sorry for him, because his mission really is an impossible one.

I continue to wonder whether he is an evil genius or an impossibly dull stooge (as compared to his predecessor) who actually believes his own b/s.  The US Treasury yield curves have been reworked by a powerful macro monetary manager.  The curves are now telling us that there are few concerns about inflation, thus the Fed is free to keep ZIRP on tap indefinitely.  We also see the economy revving up a bit… yet still no sign of a withdrawal of ZIRP.

What is this man afraid of?  Go ahead, let the economy fly of its own merit.  Go ahead genius, I dare you.

http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com       http://www.biiwii.com

We Have Assumed Control (by Gary Tanashian)

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We have assumed control…

"Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are controlling transmission. If we wish to make it louder, we will bring up the volume. If we wish to make it softer, we will tune it to a whisper. We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical. We can roll the image, make it flutter. We can change the focus to a soft blur or sharpen it to crystal clarity. For the next hour [undetermined], sit quietly and we will control all that you see and hear."

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Two Cartoons & Some Words to Boot!

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NFTRH gives few easy answers.  That is because its writer has no easy answers, although there are consistent road maps we have used for years now that have never failed to help preserve capital when necessary – which is often – and make outstanding capital gains, when appropriate.

These road maps take the form of outliers (to standard technical and fundamental analysis) like the decades long 'Continuum' in US Treasury bonds, which takes on particular significance at limiting boundaries like the upper monthly EMA 100 (red arrows), as inflation expectations get too hot.  These have consistently proven to be times when inflation cultists, guru followers and momentum chasers have gotten croaked in the markets at very important turns as the Continuum pings along over the years from inflationary to deflationary (green arrows) fears.

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