Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
While reading of the title of this article may cause you to make certain assumptions about what you are about to read, I can assure you that this is not a politically motivated article. In fact, politics has absolutely nothing to do with the analysis and conclusions presented herein.
I want to start with the assumption that we have spoken about so often, and that it is social mood which directs our actions in life, including our willingness to buy stocks. As Robert Prechter noted in a study he published in 2012 on this topic, “[s]ocionomic theory proposes that unconscious social mood regulates social actions.”
On a not as bad as expected Payrolls report the US market is now at our target, which was a second hit of the upper reverse symmetrical triangle’s trend line. That became the objective after SPX took back the green lateral support area.
To review, bulls have the moving average trends, they have lateral support and they have blue sky’s unfettered possibilities. The bears have divergences in RSI and MACD with increasingly compromised bearish looks. In short, technically speaking the bears have not much more than bupkis.
Originally published on Sat Oct 19 on ElliottWaveTrader.net: With RGLD following through to the downside as expected in its c-wave decline, the question we are left with is if there is any more weakness to be expected in the metals complex before we begin the next major rally phase?
The simple answer is that while the patterns still suggest that a lower low can still be seen, it is not something I would be suggesting you trade for in an aggressive fashion.
By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net
This market has been difficult for both the longs and the shorts for months now. While it has been unwilling to break down, it has also been equally unwilling to break out.
What makes me scratch my head even more of late is that the Fed has come to the table with its “not-really-QE-4” of $60 billion a month. For those that remember, QE1 was approximately $100 billion a month on average, QE2 was $75 billion, and QE3 was $85 billion. But, to see the Fed coming forth with this type of liquidity injection when the market is hovering just below its all-time highs is a bit surprising. Yet, the market is still unable to break out.
Preface from Tim Knight: just to be really clear, this is a contribution from an outside writer, and is neither my piece nor my opinion.
As the media highlights the potential impeachment process in the coming weeks, many are so concerned that this will be the “cause” of the market drop we are expecting. Yet, history suggests otherwise.
The narrative will certainly play out as follows: The market likes certainty and stability within our government. (Please ignore that this was the same reason many claimed that the market was going to crash if Trump was elected – yet we were pounding the table in expectations of a large rally). However, an impeachment proceeding places us into a very uncertain and unstable situation within our government. Therefore, the market will react negatively to that uncertainty.
The pundits and the media were debating for several weeks leading up to the last Fed meeting about what the Fed was going to do and the effect they thought it would have on the market. And, it amazes that the great majority of the market does not realize how much of a waste of time these debates really are.
But, as I often note, many market participants and analysts are simply not burdened by the facts. If they really would review the facts of market history, they would learn that there is no one that can control the market. PERIOD.
I am simply amazed at how much email I have been getting asking my opinion regarding the latest “manipulation” cases. And, many of those are asking me if I am finally convinced that the metals market was manipulated to drop from 2011 to 2015.
Well, let’s try to walk through the issues together.
Let’s start this article by identifying that about which we are speaking. You see, the great majority of those who read these manipulation cases believe that the manipulation addressed in these cases is what caused the metals market to drop from 2011 to 2015, and what caused a 70% cut in the price of silver. So, if you have clicked on this article to read me changing my position regarding that type of “manipulation,” you will be quite disappointed. And, if you actually believe in that perspective, I suggest you read on with an open mind, as you will see why you are 100% wrong in that belief.