Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Market Finally Topping?

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Many investors maintain beliefs about the stock market which often have them looking the wrong way at the market turns. In fact, I can no longer count how many comments I see about how the Fed is what directs our stock market action, and it just makes me scratch my head.

The main argument by Fed watchers is that the Fed’s easy money drives the stock market. Yet, the Fed’s balance sheet peaked at $4.52 trillion in January of 2015 and is down over 12% from that peak. Yet the stock market has added over 40% since the Fed’s balance sheet peaked. Remember how often we were told by the Fed watchers that a shrinking Fed balance sheet would lead to a stock market crash? Well, it certainly did, but not in the direction most expected.

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Have You Felt Like A ‘Genius’ In This Bull Market Or Have You Felt Lost?

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Preface from Tim: in case it’s not screamingly obvious, I did not write the following post (the prediction that we’re going to at least 3200 on the S&P 500 will be your first hint). Still, I wanted to share Avi’s perspective:

There is an old adage in the market which says that “everyone is a genius in a bull market.” What that really means is that as long as you keep looking to the long side in a bull market, you will be seen as a genius.

But, remember, one of the main perquisites for maintaining “genius” status is that we must be in a “bull market.” So, how do you know when a bull market is coming to an end?

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Bitcoin Bullish Attempt

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Some time has passed since I wrote a more lengthy article, but not nearly as long a time as this gruelling bear market in cryptos – now 12 months long, and counting. So, in this article I’d like to rewind the clock a bit. 

When we first saw our bull market top in cryptos, I did not fully expect a long bear market such as we’ve seen. While the March breakdown confirmed in my mind that the $3000 to $4700 zone would be visited again, I did not think it would take this long. 

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Head Em’ Up! Move Em’ Out! Rawhide! (by PianoMan)

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Greetings everyone! There are several chartist websites, all EW’ers, that I visit to help me in my trading. They are not always in agreement but it does help me gauge where we are at, up or down and strength of move. Tim made a proposal that we could go up until Jan. 7th until the Trade talks. As I look at these different websites it is becoming apparent that the next move might be down. Why?

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Are We Approaching A “Once-In-A-Century” Type Event In The Stock Market?

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As many of you know, I will often read articles written by others — along with the comments — to gauge the overall sentiment of the market from an anecdotal perspective.  During one of my recent perusals of articles, I noticed a quote of the following statement by Sir John Templeton:

“For 100 years optimists have carried the day in U.S. stocks. Even in the dark 70’s, many professional money managers, and many individual investors too, made money in stocks, especially those of smaller companies.

“There will, of course, be corrections, perhaps even crashes. But, over time, our studies indicate stocks do go up. As national economies become more integrated and interdependent, as communication becomes easier and cheaper, business is likely to boom. Trade and travel will grow. Wealth will increase. And stock prices should rise accordingly.” (more…)

These ‘Facts’ About The Market Will Continue To Get You Whipsawed

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I have been getting such a chuckle from the market of late.

As the market made its way down to our 2600 target region towards the end of October, more and more market participants and analysts became more and more bearish. In fact, the bearishness was palpable as we approached 2600SPX.

However, our analysis suggested that the market should bottom in the 2600SPX region, and begin a corrective rally, which then topped at 2815SPX.

But, the day after the market began a strong rally off the 2603SPX level, many were quite fearful that Oct. 31 would provide us with a market crash. You see, that was the day that a quantitative tightening was scheduled by the Federal Reserve.

Yet, that day provided us with a 50-point rally. Yes, you heard me right. And, again, market participants and analysts were looking the wrong way in a big way due to their fundamental beliefs about what drives the stock market.

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Investors Are Getting Stressed, And It Can Get Much Worse

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I am starting to see evidence of serious stress from investors based upon the tone of the some of the comments I am seeing in my articles on the market. Well, at least from those who did not heed my warnings.

In fact, even though I warned about this type of drop well before it happened, some investors were taking their anger out on me even though the market did exactly what I warned it would do. This suggests a high amount of stress being felt by many investors after only a 10% drop off the highs. Can you imagine what it will be like if we attained the full 20-30% correction that we see as a strong potential?

I have even seen commenters begin to channel Barron Rothschild, and say that they are buying because of the blood in the streets. However, I suspect that the blood they are seeing is likely only as a result of paper cuts or knee scrapes rather than any serious injuries – at least for now. In fact, we really have not seen any real blood since 2008/09.

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