Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Equity Market Is Giving You A Huge Opportunity

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Note from Tim: I didn’t write this. And I probably have as contrary a view to the thoughts below as can be imagined. But I want to provide other points of view. I simply wanted to stress……these are NOT my opinions. No no no no no. OK, thank you.

Over a week ago, in my analysis to my members, I noted that, ideally, I was looking for the market to pullback and test the 2800SPX region. And, the market certainly dropped down to the 2800 region, but also broke the 2796SPX support upon which I was focused. That had me begin to focus on the 2700SPX region of support. And, today, we dropped and broke my next level of support at 2700SPX. But, this is the pullback I have been looking for over the last several months which had not materialized. Now, it has come in with a bang.

While this pullback took many by surprise, the common reason attributed to the decline last week was the rise in interest rates. I need help understanding this “reason.” Allow me to explain.

Back on June 27th, 2016, we published analysis to our members entitled “Beware of Bonds Blowing Up.” That was the first long term top call we made on bonds in the 5 years we had been open to that point. And, as we now know, the bond market topped a little less than two weeks later.

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True Believer Syndrome

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I’m going to start with a tale from about 180 years ago. In the early 1840s, a religious leader named William Miller believed the second coming of Jesus was foretold in the Bible with mathematical accuracy, and using a myriad of verses and tidbits from the Bible, he sought to compute as closely as possible when exactly J.C. was going to come back.

prophetcy

At first, he didn’t offer anything very exact:

Using an interpretive principle known as the day-year principle, Miller, along with others, interpreted a prophetic “day” to read not as a 24-hour period, but rather as a calendar year. Miller became convinced that the 2,300-day period started in 457 B.C. with the decree to rebuild Jerusalem by Artaxerxes I of Persia. His interpretation led him to believe and promote the year 1843. Despite the urging of his supporters, Miller never announced an exact date for the expected Second Advent. But he did narrow the time period to sometime in the Jewish year 5604, stating: “My principles in brief, are, that Jesus Christ will come again to this earth, cleanse, purify, and take possession of the same, with all the saints, sometime between March 21, 1843 and March 21, 1844.” (more…)

What Does The Analyst Who Called For The 2016-2017 Market Rally Say About 2018?

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By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

As Ecclesiastes notes, “There is nothing new under the sun.” This, too, applies to the stock market.

The average investor trap is the same throughout whatever period you wish to review. Markets become overexuberant, see a correction, sentiment resets, and markets rally on to their next phase of overexuberance. It is really that simple. Yet, we overcomplicate matters by relying on economics and fundamentals, which have proven to be relatively useless at major market turning points.

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