Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Wave Count Pointing Lower (by Avi Gilburt)

By -

Tonight I am going to go out on a limb and say that I think we will see at least the 1280’s and potentially lower by tomorrow morning. In fact, I would not be surprised to even see the 1230-1245 region by the 19th of the month.

Based upon our current chart, while it is still "possible" that we have bottomed in a green wave ii – which, if you noticed, I took off the chart this evening — I think that it is a much lower probability than as of this afternoon. Rather, if a wave 2 is going to bottom, it would be at a much lower level. Of course, if the market is over the 1321 level by tomorrow, it clearly tells us that we are heading up to 1352, but I don’t think that is the most likely scenario into tomorrow. But, this is the overnight risk I mentioned earlier, and is why I suggested to be hedged tonight if you remained short overnight.

(more…)

Bearish Counts Still Dominant (by Gilburt)

By -

As long as the market remains below the 1334 level, I cannot feel comfortable in advising anyone to hold long positions overnight, as the bearish patterns are still too dominant. I have 3 different color possibilities being presented tonight, so let’s go through them.

Yellow Count: Within the yellow count, there are actually two possibilities. The first possibility is that we completed 5 waves down from the high made yesterday and today almost completed a wave (2) retracement. What supports this count is that the initial move up off the 1294 low really counted best as a 3 wave move rather than a 5 wave move, which would classify it as an a-wave with the impulsive move up at the end of the day counted as a 5 wave c-wave which could still have a little more upside left. Additionally, if the dollar and the S&P continue to trade in identical patterns, as they have of late, then the dollar count supports the yellow (1) (2) count with wave (3) of wave v of 3 about to begin.

(more…)

Heart of Wave Down (by Avi Gilburt)

By -

These are the types of trade set ups we like to see. Today, we were able to narrow down a short trade set up to within one point of our ideal target top of 1343.50ES (with the market topping at 1342.50), and provide a target of almost 20 points lower at the 1325.50ES level.

Based upon the current count, it does seem as those we are in the heart of a wave iii of a larger wave (5) of yellow 5 of the c-wave of a wave (4). For this to follow through, the market should remain below 1332, and MUST remain below 1334, which would then provide us with the target of 1320ES as the wave (5) of iii, as you can see on the 3 minute chart. We then normally see a wave iv bounce up to the 1.00 extension at 1328/29, followed by a drop down to the 1315-1318ES region. Normally, I like to target the 2.00 extension. However, since we have an overlapping 1.382 extension on the 60 minute ES chart for a wave c target, which coincides with a 1.764 extension on the 3 minute chart, I do like that target much better. My alternative target will be the 2.618 extension on the 3 minute chart, which coincides with the 1.618 larger extension for the wave c at 1306ES.

So, for tomorrow, I am expecting a potential bottom to this c-wave, which is also within the Fibonacci timing window we mentioned in the Weekend Analysis. At that point, the week after this bottom will clarify if the markets are heading up to make new highs (with a move over the 1352ES level) or if we have topped and are only moving up in a wave 4 of a larger degree 5 wave decline from the recent market top.

Full-7QpTa7t7CQZz24GTyacL
Originally published on ElliottWaveTrader.net.

Fib Timing Update (by eMiniSchool.com)

By -

5.5DOW

We did a post in March saying there was a timing high coming into the market. The count wave 233 bars high to high and 161 bars from low to high. Both 233 and 161 are important Fib Numbers.

Post is here: http://wwweminischool.wordpress.com/2012/03/24/very-important-market-update/

The market came down off the high but nothing like what should occur from a major timing high. In reality we are just still sitting at the same high. The market tried to break higher but could not. So on one had it is showing strength by not just crashing off the high but it is not showing real strength because we have not broke the timing high. 

The only thing to do is go down time frames from the Weekly chart and wait for a true break of a bullish pattern which we have not had as of the close of Friday. From the high of last week the pullback is exact symmetry support so as of the close the market is still bullish on all time frames but that could change if we break down next week.

I am not saying if we take out last weeks low I am bearish because there is still Daily support around the 2590 – 2550 on the NQ which is still a buy zone on the Daily chart. At levels like this the market likes to suck everyone in short to then short squeeze. Maybe the short squeeze does not take out the highs or maybe it does it is still too soon to tell. 

I am playing it as the leg down is still counter trend and watch out for a short squeeze. 

Our desktop messenger is ready for download if anyone is intrested. There will be a update next week with it but it is easy re-install. Just click the download button on the homepage.

The messenger sends the posts from the free blog-

Homepage –  http://360optiontrading.com/

Free Blog - http://360optiontrading.com/blog 

Happy Trading,

http://wwweminischool.wordpress.com/

Wave Analysis of USD (by Avi Gilburt)

By -

Due to the seemingly broken correlations that many have been witnessing regarding the USD, it has raised many questions regarding the direction of the USD. Many people believe that the USD is headed much higher in the near term. This mass confusion seems to be due to the fact that the old correlations between the USD and so-called “risk” assets are no longer holding as true. But, that may not continue for very long.

However, the USD has been acting exactly as expected within our Elliott Wave analysis over the last several months, and almost to the penny. As of late, the USD bottomed exactly where we expected it would in late February, and then topped exactly where we expected it would a little over a week ago.

Based upon this pattern, the USD is now setting up for a strong decline that will probably begin within the next week. However, it may still have one more small upwards retracement before its next expected precipitous drop.

(more…)