Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

What’s Next for Gold?

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Gold is taking a bit of a breather after earlier climbing to a new recovery rally high at $1220.70 in the December futures (GC), a full $53.60 and 4.6% off its August 16, 2 1/2-year low at $1167.10.In a very bullish set-up, gold (GC) should digest recent gains above the $1207 area, where the 5 DMA has just crossed above the 20 DMA. However, if $1207 is violated and sustained, then we should expect gold to press into a deeper correction of its $53.60 rally, towards the $1195-$1190 support zone, which MUST contain the weakness to avert a complete retrace of the August advance.

If either the shallow ($1207) or deeper ($1195/90) corrections unfold, the subsequent upleg will point to $1250.00.
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Additional Upside Likely for ES

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The Emini S&P 500 (ES) continues to stair-step higher, reaching my next higher target of 2853/56, and now in route to 2868/72. However, if we view all of the action from mid-July to the Aug 2 test of key support at 2791 as a failed head & shoulders top formation, then the subsequent up-move from 2791.00, which has climbed above the levels of both Shoulders at 2822-2825, and above the peak of the Head at 2849.50, now has an upside “failed pattern” target of 2885.
 
In my decades of experience, when a head & shoulders top fails to break the neckline, and then reverses to the upside, its target is measured by adding the distance from the head to the neckline to the top of the right shoulder. In this particular case, we arrive at a major target in the vicinity of 2885. (more…)

How High Will The Market Rally Before The Economic Collapse Begins?

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Last week, I wrote an article about how I view the potential effects of an economic collapse on American society. Unfortunately, many of our readers took it as an opportunity to post their perspectives on Trump and the democrats.

Yes, I know the country is exceptionally divided. However, I brought this issue to light not because I see one party as being the savior for this country over the other. Rather, I brought this issue to light to show you that we are on a path of history repeating itself, as we have forgotten the lessons learned from the pain of the past.

We all have to recognize that the United States took a big step down that slippery slope of socialism with the passage of The New Deal. Since then, it does not matter which party has been in power, as we have extended those socialistic policies when the masses thought it was “needed.” Thus, each generation since The New Deal has seen expanding socialistic policies. While you can argue whether you approve or disapprove of this progression, to ignore that we are on this path is foolish.

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Economic Combustion Powering SPX to Test All-Time High?

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A big-picture perspective of the S&P 500 (SPX) shows that the most recent up-leg off of the June 28 low at 2691.99 has climbed to a new high at 2816.25, or +4.6%.  In so doing, the SPX has hurdled its prior two significant rally peaks at June 13 (2791.47) and at March 13 (2801.90), positioning the index for upside continuation to my next optimal target zone of 2845-2860. 
 
Should such a scenario unfold, the SPX, in effect, will be climbing towards a test of its all-time high at 2872.87 from January 26 of this year. Only a break below 2789 will trigger initial signals that the June-July up-leg needs a breather.

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Bulls Follow Through

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The first week of July was really about the upside following through based on the overall rounding bottoming pattern and temporary low setup at the 2693.25 low from the last week of June. The market was able to cement the status of temporary low from June, and had a decent “stick save” on Monday July 2 at the 2698.5 lows before closing at the high of the day around 2726 to cement another higher low.
Fast forward, the market tested the key 2740-area resistance for the 3rd or 4th time time later in the week, and was pretty much destined for the breakout like we expected. If you recall, the 2748 and 2758 prior highs level got blown out of the waters on Friday when the acceleration began since the bull train erased all doubts in the minds of traders. Overall, it was a fairly easy week because we’re definitely back in the aggressive BTFD (“buy the f’in dip”) regime as it worked very well for the majority of the week.

The main takeaway from this week was that the weekly candle was able to wrap up its bullish marching band at the highs and it’s a large bull bar. All the trapped bears and bull chasers are now in a vicious cycle on getting squeezed and rushing back into playing the game of BTFD as long as trending support holds for the immediate short-term play. (more…)