At 4 this morning, my only concern was that crude oil was green in the face of equities being down hard. I have a lot of bearish energy plays, including puts on EWZ and XOP, so I want crude oil to be weak. Well, problem solved:
Crude Takes a Dump
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Crude Oil Channel Failure
This is a multi-year channel; I’ve been watching this like a hawk. This is the one and only tidbit of bearish good news since, oh, the breakout of the Korean War.
The Cheap Fuel Correlate
In the modest minds of most Americans, lower gas prices means Good Times. Not really, no. My view is that energy prices are heading much, much lower, and while that may sound like good news, I believe it speaks to a weakening global economy overall. Here, by way of example, is a graphic illustrating that plunging gas prices actually line up with bad economies, not good ones.
The Impact of SPR Releases (by Lefty12)
The chart looks quite bearish for sure.
It is worth noting that the crude oil price only stabilized and began falling in earnest with massive Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases.
Making some rough assumptions from the SPR graph below, beginning April 1 releases of 730,000 bbls/day began (a combination of an ongoing releases that began mid-December 2021and the “Emergency Sale 1” that began April 1, 2022).
The estimated daily amount increased to about 935,000 bbl/day on June 1, 2022 and is now running at about 1,000,000 bbls/day under “Emergency Sale 2” which is set to end on October 31, 2022.
(more…)Core Crude Failure
