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Before all the fun began a few weeks back, I offered the idea that weakness in Bitcoin, of all things, would break the stock market. I pointed to $90,000 as a key psychological level, and indeed, as that level broke, stocks came along for the ride. This is nicely illustrated with the layered chart of $BTC and SPY, which are in virtual lockstep.
In my post on Friday I was talking about the possible rally setup on Crypto and, while Crypto has gone down over the weekend, the rally setup has improved. It looks fragile though, and would rapidly fall in quality with a significant decline from here.
In the meantime, Trump was interviewed yesterday and was talking about further tariffs he was looking at against overseas trade partners. He was asked whether these policies might trigger a recession and said it was possible while seeming very relaxed about that prospect. This was not encouraging for equities and is fuelling further speculation that the current bull markets in Crypto and equities may now be over. I’m wondering more about that too but we’ll see how this develops.
(more…)In my post on 20th February I was looking at the big support levels on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD). I was leaning towards seeing a retracement / consolidation on Crypto in the first half of this year and then strong new highs towards the end of the year with possible bull market highs pencilled in for Nov/Dec 2025. So far the big levels on Solana and Ethereum have been tested and are holding, but the Bitcoin double top has not yet played out to the target at 69k to 70k and I’m still thinking that is likely.
In my post on 28th February I was putting the case that the bull market on Crypto isn’t over until the bull market on Bitcoin is over, and so far there is little indication of that, though that could change of course if there is a hard break below the 65k to 73.8k backtest zone.
(more…)Here’s my prediction for what’s ahead in the coming days, with David Ball Sacks at the helm:
In my post on Wednesday 19th Feb I was looking at the very nice looking topping setups on SPX, QQQ and DIA and somewhat less nice topping setup on IWM, and in my post yesterday I reviewed those, which have now all broken down with the exception of the big double top pattern on DIA.
I don’t discuss politics much generally but given the news bomb action we have seen in recent weeks and the rapid changes we are seeing in the economic and political structure of the world around us this year, I want to talk briefly about Trump and the tariffs that he is currently very keen on imposing on many or all of those who trade with the US.
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