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I was very impressed by a very lengthy note left on /wsb (original is here). I have pasted it below and boldfaced some of my favorite passages:
Bitcoin, a glorified ponz, is fueled by the greater fool theory. Or rather the idea that no matter how irrationally overpriced an asset becomes, there will always be a bigger idiot willing to pay more. Why is this a problem now? Every cycle, the same playbook repeats: euphoric hype, mass speculation, and inevitable collapse. With each crash, more and MORE people are financially butt f*cked.
Each cycle draws in a greater percentage of the population and we’ve hit critical mass at this point. There aren’t an infinite amount of people, our populations are shrinking, and at this point everyone in the world knows about bitcoin. Unlike gold, which has intrinsic material value, Bitcoin is a PURELY a speculative illusion. It produces nothing, generates no cash flow, and uses massive amounts of energy to solve hash functions that serve no purpose except to “mine” fake coins. It’s actually unbelievably how regarded this is. This is not innovation — it’s financial predation larping as “muh technological progress“
In my last post on Wednesday I was looking at the bullish leaning setups on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Ethereum (ETHUSD) and Solana (SOLUSD) Both Bitcoin and Solana had daily RSI 14 sell signals two weeks ago of course, and Ethereum (ETHUSD) also had one fix last week, so now all three have fixed daily RSI 14 sell signals. These are likely signalling a larger retracement coming in the first months of next year, but I’m not expecting to see that in December …. most likely.
On the daily chart Bitcoin had backtested and held the daily middle band last week and I was looking for a new all time high. We saw that over the weekend and Bitcoin is getting close to the 3sd upper band, currently at 108315. That hasn’t been hit yet but, if hit, that may signal the start of another modest consolidation before going higher.
BTCUSD daily chart:
On the hourly chart I have rising support from the November low at 66.8k currently in the 99k area and am wondering whether the next big target might be the channel resistance parallel to that rising support, currently in the 118k area.
BTCUSD 60min chart:
Ethereum backtested the daily middle band on the last retracement and held it. I was saying last Wednesday that the next obvious target was a retest of the 2024 high at 4095.77, reached today, and I have an eye on now the next big target, which is a retest of the 2021 all time high at 4865.94.
ETHUSD daily chart:
On the Ethereum 15min chart last week (not shown) there was a double bottom that had broken up with a target in the 4050 area, which was reached of course, and now that the 4095.77 high has been retested I would note that there is a now possible double top setup here on Ethereum, though I’m not seeing any obvious reason to expect that to play out at the moment.
ETHUSD 60min chart:
Solana has been the problem child over the last few days. I was saying on Wednesday that the daily middle band, which had been holding repeatedly as resistance over the previous ten days, needed to be broken and converted to support to open a retest of the all time high at 264.52, and we haven’t seen that yet, with the rally last week failing at the daily middle band again.
SOLUSD daily chart:
There is still a fixed double bottom target at 237.5 to 240 (shown on the 15min chart in my last post), and either Solana makes that target or it then likely retests the last low at 203.30. If seen that may well be the second low of a larger double bottom with a target on a sustained break over 234.75 at a retest of the all time high.
The current setup on Solana is a high quality bull flag channel and 70% this breaks up now or after a low retest. The 30% break down option is worth a look here though as there is a possible large H&S here (not shown on the chart below) that on a sustained break below 200 would have a target in the 138 area. This isn’t something I’m thinking is likely to play out, but in the event that we were to see a hard break down on equities over the next few days, which I’m really not expecting, that could deliver.
Bull flag channel resistance is now in the 233 area, and a sustained break above looks for a retest of the all time high at 264.52.
SOLUSD 60min chart:
On the bigger picture I’m leaning bullish across the board with the caveat that the fixed daily RSI 14 sell signals on Bitcoin, Solana and Ethereum are warning that a longer and deeper consolidation may be coming within a few weeks. There is always a chance that retracement might arrive earlier, though December would not be an obvious time to see that.
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In my last post on Monday I was looking at the possibility that a bull flag channel might well be forming on Solana, and that delivered beautifully. Not everyone saw the post of course as you can see from a tweet I saw last night:
Solana (SOLUSD) reached the daily 3sd lower band, often a good area to look for a reversal, tested that twice and has rejected higher. Key resistance remains at the daily middle band, currently at 236, which has held as resistance at the close each day for the last ten days. That needs to be broken and converted to support to clear the path for Solana to retest the all time high.
In my last post on Thursday I was looking at the possibility that the bullish consolidation on Solana (SOLUSD) particularly might see another lower low as part of a bull flag forming, and the jury was still out on that this morning.
On the daily chart Solana has still been holding the daily middle band, currently at 239.41, as resistance. The path to a lower low is still open, and there are some attractive targets.
On the daily chart the obvious support is at the monthly pivot at 219.10, and the 50dma, currently at 210.07. 210 would be a close backtest of the broken March 2020 high at 209.86 of course.
