Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
A Liberation Day Gameplan
That Smoot-Hawley Feeling
I see that it occurred to the White House that having their giant tariff-focused Make America Rich Again (ha!) celebration of specialness at 3 p.m. wasn’t a brilliant idea, since that’s during market hours, so they quietly moved it to precisely the market close. Should be interesting.
It’s a relief to see a lot of red this morning. What has happened over the long haul is that the gargantuan (and final, God willing) megatop pushed prices much lower, only to result in the annoying counter-trend rally, whose peak I predicted to be 5800. That’s almost exactly where it landed (arrow) before resuming the fall.
Four Bear Markets and a Setup
As I’ve been working on my post today to look at downside patterns on US equity indices I have realised that this too needs to be split into two posts, so this first TA post will just look at the historical and very compelling current setups on SPX, while the second post will also look at the current setups and targets on QQQ, DIA and IWM.
In my last post overnight, Brave New World, I was looking at the economic reasons why I think that the planned tariff war on the world due to start tomorrow may have a very serious economic impact, particularly on the US economy.
In this post I am looking at last four big bear markets / crash setups on SPX and how they played out, and looking at the setup and targets currently on SPX if we are about to see something similar play out here, as I think we well might.
(more…)Brave New World
I’ve been mulling over how to do this post for a while because I don’t want to offend readers who might be very sensitive to any criticism, direct or implied, of the Trump administration, and I tend to stay away from any political discussions. However, any objective review of the likely effect of some of that administration’s policies requires an honest discussion of those policies and their likely impact.
Given that I now believe that the odds of seeing a serious bear market this year are high and that a full market crash is increasingly on the cards. I need to do that objective review, and my apologies if anyone is offended. I am just describing the geopolitical and economic realities here as I see them and am not planning to make political commentary a regular feature in my analysis going forward.
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