Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Sputtering to a Stop

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We are living in a singularly bizarre time. And it just seems to me the stage is set for things to go from bizarre to outright surreal.

It feels like the world is slowly shutting down, day by day. Schools are closing. Events, both big and small, are being cancelled. Travel is collapsing. People are scared.

The only ones who should be grateful are the 18,000 (!) employees drawing salaries from the Federal Reserve. Even though the financial cataclysm at hand is entirely and utterly their fault, they will get a pass thanks to an invisible virus that strolled onto the scene. Jerome Powell will be seen as impotent, but he probably won’t get the wrath he so richly deserves.

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I Can’t Help Myself!

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There aren’t supposed to be second chances in the market, but that’s not true. We got a glorious second chance thanks to a combination of BTFD disease, an emergency rate cut, and Biden’s victory on Super Tuesday. All of this result in a multi-thousand point reversal on the Dow, which gave me an opportunity to gently position the necks of the bulls at exactly the right groove of the guillotine. Thus, Thursday was rocking.

I must say, after my night-of-talking-to-myself, and my “new way“, I was in a much better place mentally. It was cathartic and transformative. At least briefly.

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Sloper Level: Nostradamus

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Note from Tim: Thanks to the much, much more interesting market (as opposed to just one month ago, when it was ungodly dull just crept up 0.5% day after goddamned day), my inbox has been flooded with myriad interesting characters, each of whom has their own tale.

I received an absolutely extraordinary email from one particular gentleman, who shall remain anonymous. After receiving this email, I asked his permission to share it with you, which is generously granted. Enjoy, and be amazed (note the only editing I have done is to boldface some items for emphasis):

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Thanks For Your Support

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OK, sweet, we’ve got a tasty, nasty bear market finally cooking. So where’s the next important level of support? Well, I’ll get to that in a moment.

Yesterday, when the market had its biggest “up” day in human history, I took the very bold step of writing a post for my Gold and Diamond members and declared, via the post title, “An Argument for a Short Bounce“. In it, I declared:

To be sure, my “sweet spot” is just about 3100 on the S&P 500. But I wanted to show you the above chart to illustrate the real possibility that whatever bounce we get may not be that much more than we’ve already received. 

Today’s high on the S&P 500? 3136.72, an overshoot of 1% following the emergency rate cut. It makes me feel good about the insane number of Gold members that have been signing up. I’m trying my best.

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