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I just bought June $230 puts in Carvana (CVNA), whose recent price activity is featured below, augmented by the oh-so-innocent grin of its convicted felon founder (who had to have his son be on the paperwork, what with the prison sentence and all). The company has been, for the moment, insanely successful, and it is sporting a price/earnings ratio measured, quite literally, in the quadruple digits.
My brain isn’t good at much. I don’t have a knack for math. I’m lousy at remembering names of human beings. And I bet if I tried to be an actor, I’d forget my lines. I am, however, very good at analogs and metaphors, and they’re always creeping into my head, uninvited.
The latest one involves something in which I have a weird fascination, which is the peculiar and frankly gross recipes that seemed so popular from the early 1950s until the early 1980s. I run across these on a daily basis. Here’s just a small sampling, with a particular emphasis on what seems to have been a fetish in the United States: Jello-O based molds. Shield your eyes, Frank.
(more…)I used to have three dogs. Now I’ve got two, one of whom is more of a fluffy throw pillow than a dog, since he’s too old to do anything except sleep. Thus, I’m really just down to just a single blonde mischief-maker. To stave off depression for the both of us, I’m walking him three times a day instead of just once, because his friend and walking buddy is gone.
Monday morning started off really rough.
I woke up at about 4 a.m., and the last I had seen of the markets, the /ES, /NQ, and /CL were all red. I didn’t look at my iPad, but I figured that, on the heels of the big rally on Friday, maybe we’d get a day when the good guys would win.
Well, I got into my home office and saw every single stock and futures market was bright green. There was chatter about Trump reneging on another campaign promise (tariffs) which was goosing markets higher. I also had the gloom of losing Coda still hanging over me, which has affected me FAR more than any human death in my life, including my parents.
And then, just to turn things from bad to awful, this email was waiting for me in my inbox.
This article attempts to put clearer words and images to the many words I expended in my interview with Jordan on Monday discussing the macro (and the precious metals).
For virtually all of 2024 NFTRH has been on a plan that saw two things in the stock market…
Risk indicators have generally been of two kinds; signs of extreme complacency and confidence, and analogs of past conditions that extrapolate to a bearish outcome. Frankly, it has been a bit of a trick remaining bullish with the market’s trends and ongoing momentum, while being aware of the risk profile. But that is our job at NFTRH; to be on the right side of the markets, bias be damned. The right side in 2024 was the bullish side.
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