Time for a Culture War post, and one in which I actually am going to hide most of the content behind a paywall, since I’d rather have the privacy of conversing with my paying members on most of this one. Let’s start with this:
Me, Myself, and I
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Gamblers Not-So-Anonymous
As most of you know, the vibe over at /wsb is pretty much that of a bunch of degenerate gamblers, but some posts really take the cake. I offer you this beauty:
Insights from My Fake Longs
Hey, stupid! Why not just buy longs and be done with it?
Yep, that’s the kind of cruel query I pose to myself after times like, oh, the past eight trading days (kicked off on the morning of 9/11, appropriately enough, when Jensen Huang talked up his own stock and kicked off a multi-trillion-dollar worldwide equity rally). The lifetime-highs-every-day rallies we get compel me, from time to time, to put together hypothetical “what if I just bought a bunch of good-looking stocks?” portfolios and track them over time. I’d like to share this updated data with you now.
The construction of these portfolios is easy to explain: I go through all my charts as I normally would, and I try to pick out the very best setups. Here, for instance, are a dozen stocks (a pretend $120,000 portfolio evenly divided into starting $10,000 positions) that I “bought” on July 31st. As you can see, in spite of us being at lifetime highs, it’s a mixed bag: 5 winners and 7 losers, yielding a small loss and an annualized -3.1% return.
(more…)Burning Down the Haus
You are probably acquainted with this phrase:
“On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.”
Well, you may have trouble believing this, but the same holds true for my predictions. Some of them (well, most of them) take longer to play out than I hoped, but, sooner or later, they DO transpire.
I offer this morning as Exhibit A in that respect this very fresh headline:
Time Knight
Yep, it’s another all-green morning. It always seems to be that way these days, although as yesterday proved, that can change quite swiftly. But as we prepare ourselves emotionally, financially, and spiritually for the Powell speech (which, I betcha, is going to be a big nothing-burger with a slice of Kraft cheese inside) I wanted to say a few words about time perspective.
For very short-term traders, the overnight action is their bread and butter. With a short-term time perspective, the /ES has done great, as has just about every other asset class. As the fabled market genius and icon of sartorial splendor Jim Cramer might say, “buy, buy, buy!”
