Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

9/11 and the Fourth Turning

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Before the year 2001, the date September 11th meant nothing. It was nowhere near a holiday or any other important date that triggers an association (like April 15, June 6, or December 7). After 2001, however, September 11th is one of the most evocative days on the calendar.

On this 22nd anniversary of the attacks against the U.S., I decided to crack open my well-read copy of The Fourth Turning and share some morsels. Keep in mind this book was written in 1997, almost a quarter century ago, so obviously it had no inkling of what was coming. I emphasize this because some “predictive” books are held up as being prescient, but the logic and comparisons are so tortured as to make it pointless. In sharp contrast, The Fourth Turning seems terrifyingly accurate.

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PREMIUM: Jones Creek

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Note: This post is special enough to be labeled a premium post, which means that it is (with the exception of the paragraph you are reading now) visible only to paying subscribers (AKA the people who keep Slope going day after day). If you would like to try a risk-free subscription to get immediate access to all premium content, as well as the dozens of other features exclusive for paid accounts, click here to explore the choices. Everyone is welcome to continue chatting in comments below (or, for a more free-flowing experience, please use SlopeTalk).

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Close Encounter

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It is early morning, with the fog-shrouded sky concealing the puny amount of sunlight on the horizon. I am walking my two large dogs on the wild lawn of Palo Alto’s main post office, constructed during the Great Depression and looking every bit worse for the wear. The dogs are both gnawing on long strands of grass, having found the very specific variety of plant that they seem to favor, and I gaze off into the parking lot on the other side of Hamilton Avenue.

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Bear Case: Valuation (by LZ)

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These are my top reasons for being bearish here. This is not a timing call although in my opinion, the market has been the walking dead since the AI-spike.  Most of these are slow moving data points though and say nothing about short-term action or sentiment.

Give Me the Best Risk-Adjusted Return

The DJIA divided by the CPI. There are two potential bear markets: 1930s (2000 and 2008) or 1970s. Big difference in the performance of commodities and bonds. Stocks will also be difficult for trading in an inflation scenario. It could be 2022 and 2023 repeated for years while inflation incinerates purchasing power.

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