Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Jobsian Reflections

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Earlier this week, I did a post to let everyone know that the free online book Make Something Wonderful was finally available. It is a compilation of a hodgepodge of emails, speeches, photos, and anecdotes related to Steve Jobs. I looked at all the pictures immediately, and in the evening I took the time to really read through the text. It was an absolute pleasure. The text starts off with this quote; I had never thought about how creating something is a way to “transmit” anything, but it makes abundant sense. As a person who has tried in his life to create a few ‘wonderful” things, it warms my heart.

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Disasters are Bad for Bears

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When markets are cheap, such as in 1982 or early 2009, the task of bulls is straightforward: find good, solid, growing companies, but your money in, and leave it alone. Simple. Straightforward. Very, very profitable.

When markets are an overinflated joke like, oh, say, right this second, this isn’t how it goes. The task of bulls is to beg for handouts, plead for fake 5-star analyst reports, and, when necessary, blame anyone but themselves for the troubles of their company. This tweet showed up yesterday, and I could hardly believe my eyes:

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A Unique Moment

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I think the statute of limitations has passed on this story, so why not tell it?  When I was a teenager, I think fourteen or fifteen, I got bored one summer day.  I didn’t have a license.  My mom was taking a nap, so I got it in my head to take the family minivan out for a spin.  I was ready for some wheels.  I was ready to drive.  At least I thought I was.

We lived out in the country, so I was just going to take a quick drive around some of the roads around where we lived.  I thought maybe I’d drive by some of the houses where kids I went to school with lived.  It was going to be fun. 

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Convergence and Revelation

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There are three meditative activities in my life. One, when I’m walking my dogs; two, when I’m in bed at the end of the day getting ready for sleep, and three, when it’s warm enough, when I swim. This time, it was the dog walk.

You see, whether I do well or poorly on a given day, I am in a constant state of judging myself. Even during very successful periods, I’ll ask myself: what do I think of my behavior? When I do poorly, of course, I judge myself even more critically, trying to reason out what I could have done better.

Given what transpired over the past week, I was in a particularly contemplative mood. After trading was over on Friday, March 24th, my portfolio was sporting a modest profit for the quarter. A week later, after the close on the 31st, it had turned into a modest loss. It isn’t a good feeling, and although the delineations that mark one quarter to the next are arbitrary in the context of the flow of trading, it’s still upsetting to work hard for three months and have less than nothing to show for it.

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A Dozen Months

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With Q1 2023 behind us, I offer below a dozen charts (almost all of them ETFs) presented in as monthly bars. This very crude granularity allows one to see in very simple terms what the long-term personality of each financial instrument is at present. I’ve put my remarks for each item in the caption area of every chart.

My view continues to be that commodities will lead the way lower Q4 2022 was the start of this breakdown, and we made more progress in Q1. Energy continues to be my most dominant short sector.
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