Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Convergence and Revelation

By -

There are three meditative activities in my life. One, when I’m walking my dogs; two, when I’m in bed at the end of the day getting ready for sleep, and three, when it’s warm enough, when I swim. This time, it was the dog walk.

You see, whether I do well or poorly on a given day, I am in a constant state of judging myself. Even during very successful periods, I’ll ask myself: what do I think of my behavior? When I do poorly, of course, I judge myself even more critically, trying to reason out what I could have done better.

Given what transpired over the past week, I was in a particularly contemplative mood. After trading was over on Friday, March 24th, my portfolio was sporting a modest profit for the quarter. A week later, after the close on the 31st, it had turned into a modest loss. It isn’t a good feeling, and although the delineations that mark one quarter to the next are arbitrary in the context of the flow of trading, it’s still upsetting to work hard for three months and have less than nothing to show for it.

(more…)

A Dozen Months

By -

With Q1 2023 behind us, I offer below a dozen charts (almost all of them ETFs) presented in as monthly bars. This very crude granularity allows one to see in very simple terms what the long-term personality of each financial instrument is at present. I’ve put my remarks for each item in the caption area of every chart.

My view continues to be that commodities will lead the way lower Q4 2022 was the start of this breakdown, and we made more progress in Q1. Energy continues to be my most dominant short sector.
(more…)

Eighteen Years Old & Newly Born

By -

Today is a doubly special day.

For one thing, today is Slope of Hope’s 18th birthday. Every year on March 29th, I’ve written up some kind of “happy birthday” message to celebrate yet another annum in Slope’s long and storied history. It seems hard to believe that, were Slope a person, it would now be old enough to vote and have consensual sex. Let us all take a moment of gratitude that Slope is, in fact, an abstraction and incapable of doing either of those things. Sort of like its creator.

Some things never change, huh?
(more…)

The End of Excess

By -

If you are driving all day long with a friend, and there’s nothing but blue sky and straight roads ahead, your conversation will probably wander to all kinds of topics. Perhaps you’ll listen to some music or news together. Maybe you’ll tell a funny story or share some thoughts about something going on in the world. It’s a good way to pass the time.

On the other hand, during the same trip, if you hit a huge patch of ice and start spinning around, putting you and your companion at risk of slamming into ongoing traffic of tumbling down a cliff, the priorities are going to change in a big hurry. You’re not going to be chit-chatting and laughing. You’re going to be focused on the emergency at hand and trying to save your life. Searching the FM radio dial for a good station simply isn’t going to occur to anyone.

(more…)