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Ever since yesterday afternoon, when META’s earnings came out and sent the stock blasting higher, I have been ruminating on a couple of big errors I made yesterday and how I got there. I’d like to talk about those, and we’ll begin with this chart of the /NQ, which shows, by way of 1-minute bars, the activity on the /NQ over the past twenty-four hours or so:
In the early morning hours of April 4, 2023, not even ten full days ago, wealthy tech executive Bob Lee was stabbed to death in San Francisco. About 17 seconds later, the entire world was sure of one truth: some black homeless dude did it. No doubt about it at all. Nope. And they let the world know.
As we found out today, everything those SF-bashers (and billionaire tech bros like David Sacks and Jason Calacanis) were saying was absolutely wrong. The guy who killed him wasn’t black. He wasn’t homeless. In point of fact, he was someone the late Bob Lee knew very well. He was an entrepreneur here in the Bay Area. And he’s in jail awaiting trial for murder now, thanks to his arrest this very morning.
Earlier this week, I did a post to let everyone know that the free online book Make Something Wonderful was finally available. It is a compilation of a hodgepodge of emails, speeches, photos, and anecdotes related to Steve Jobs. I looked at all the pictures immediately, and in the evening I took the time to really read through the text. It was an absolute pleasure. The text starts off with this quote; I had never thought about how creating something is a way to “transmit” anything, but it makes abundant sense. As a person who has tried in his life to create a few ‘wonderful” things, it warms my heart.
When markets are cheap, such as in 1982 or early 2009, the task of bulls is straightforward: find good, solid, growing companies, but your money in, and leave it alone. Simple. Straightforward. Very, very profitable.
When markets are an overinflated joke like, oh, say, right this second, this isn’t how it goes. The task of bulls is to beg for handouts, plead for fake 5-star analyst reports, and, when necessary, blame anyone but themselves for the troubles of their company. This tweet showed up yesterday, and I could hardly believe my eyes:
I think the statute of limitations has passed on this story, so why not tell it? When I was a teenager, I think fourteen or fifteen, I got bored one summer day. I didn’t have a license. My mom was taking a nap, so I got it in my head to take the family minivan out for a spin. I was ready for some wheels. I was ready to drive. At least I thought I was.
We lived out in the country, so I was just going to take a quick drive around some of the roads around where we lived. I thought maybe I’d drive by some of the houses where kids I went to school with lived. It was going to be fun.
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