Here is a chart of the percentage of stocks above their respective 200-day moving averages. As you can see, the wooden foundation is seriously starting to rot.
Eroding Market
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
The Bull That Didn’t Charge
In my posts on 20th October, 24th October, and 28th October I was looking at the rising wedges on SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM from the April lows and weighing the odds of these breaking down into a substantial retracement in the near future.
I was saying that these are all good quality mature patterns that I would normally expect to break down, but was concerned that we might instead see the start of a larger break up into December.
In my last post on 7th November I was noting that all those wedges had broken down and gave some downside target areas that I was looking at initially.
(more…)Where To Now? (by Xerxes)
I haven’t done much since April since this market decided that tariffing the fuck out of everyone was suddenly a good thing (It wasn’t). So, I stepped away from doing too much trading for the most part. But we are finally seeing some potential action in the markets that can make for decent swings and shorts in coming months.
Rising Wedges Break Down
In my posts on 20th October, 24th October, and 28th October I was looking at the rising wedges on SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM from the April lows and weighing the odds of these breaking down into a substantial retracement in the near future.
I was saying that these are all good quality mature patterns that I would normally expect to break down, but was concerned that we might instead see the start of a larger break up into December.
My concerns to the upside were firstly that November and December lean significantly bullish, and that remains the case of course.
Shorter term I was concerned that the Fed cut might trigger an upside break but that didn’t happen.
(more…)Looking Over the Cliff Edge
In my post on Wednesday 22nd October I was looking at the major support being tested on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Solana (SOLUSD), and Ethereum (ETHUSD), and saying that sustained breaks below those support levels would boost the case that the bull market on Crypto has already ended, barring possible high retests as part of the topping process. This was and is a major inflection point, and the direction of the break from this inflection point is still in the balance.
I was noting that the last two bull market highs on Bitcoin were in December 2017 and November 2021, close to the end of the year and four years apart, so the end of 2025 is the obvious period to be looking for an end to the current bull market, and I’ve had that pencilled in at the likely topping area all year.
In my last post on Thursday 30th October I was looking in detail at the key support levels on the weekly and daily charts and looking at the possible H&S patterns forming on the Solana and Ethereum charts.
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