First let me express some sympathy for those who bought the close yesterday in the expectation that the falling wedge on SPX had broken up and retested and that yesterday’s strong close was a break up. I did say yesterday morning that the falling wedge on SPX wasn’t of high quality. However the falling wedge on ES is a decent quality pattern and that broke up at the close yesterday. As long as support holds this morning, with ES having currently made marginal new lows for the week, there is a strongly bullish setup here with the broken falling wedge and possible double-bottom targeting the 1710.5 area on a break over 1696.5. (more…)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Bounce Failure at ES 50 Hour MA
That was a very nice bounce setup coming into yesterday morning, and it improved with the initial spike down as a double-bottom formed on SPX to join the one on ES. Both double-bottoms broke up but soon ran into a wall at the ES 50 hour MA and failed there, which was bearish. Overnight ES bounced again and failed again at the 50 hour MA, currently at 1693, so that is main resistance coming into today and the bulls have nothing unless that can be broken. ES support is gap support in the 1683.75 to 1687.25 range, and if that breaks the H&S target is in the 1649 area. ES 60min chart: (more…)
AAPL IHS
ES hit my targets on Friday but didn’t reverse there, closing very well below both the daily and weekly upper bollinger bands. I was asked why I am expecting at least a test of the highs before a larger reversal and the main reason is that there was no NYMO or daily RSI 5 divergence at the current high. We don’t always get either of course, but we do much more often than not, as you can see from the 7 month chart below showing the trend reversals over that period. SPX vs NYMO daily chart: (more…)
Friday Triple Witching
First today a great quote taken from one of my morning pre-market destinations at the Stock Market Almanac Blog, where they warn that the stats lean bearish today: (more…)
Swimming in Dove Guano
The FOMC bombshell wasn’t a complete surprise yesterday. I did mention in the morning that the Fed’s capability or courage to tighten policy was mainly theoretical, and it’s still mainly theoretical this morning. Of course the Fed have to walk a fine line between blowing up an asset bubble, and depressing the economy by removing the highly addictive stimulants that may be all that are maintaining the appearance of continuing economic vigor. The US is fortunate to have such a dedicated and highly qualified team operating the printing presses day and night, 365 days per year, and seemingly prepared to do so for the rest of time, or until the value of the US Dollar falls to zero, whichever comes sooner: (more…)
