Well, that’s that. Both TBT and TLT have sealed their price gaps. It would be QUITE appreciated if that was the limit of the bond move, thank you very much. We shall soon see.
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Sealed!
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Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
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One Gap to Rule Them All
The plunge in interest rates in recent weeks has set fire to equities. This was signaled, as I pointed out at the time, by the massive overshoot in TBT (the ultra-short on bonds fund). Please note that TBT is rapidly plunging toward an important price gap, and the closure of this gap will likely put an end to the interest rate relaxation.
Watch Bonds Above All Else
Bonds, as represented below by TLT, bottomed on October 23rd. Equities kept falling and bottomed four days later, after which time they went rocketing higher. The widespread notion that the multi-year bear market in bonds is somehow magically over, and that loaning money to the United States is suddenly a super idea, is not something I believe. On the contrary, the closer we get to that line at 92.43, the more confident I will be that the bounce is done. This, above all else (even Nvidia!) is key to the balance of 2023.
Serious Passive Income
Q4 2023 Broad Seasonal Situation
SPX bounce underway, but resistance upcoming
This article discusses one diverse component of the broad global markets; the US S&P 500. The market has some poor underpinnings that we routinely keep track of in NFTRH and are beyond the scope of this public article. Also beyond the scope are macro risk indicators, including the US dollar and its relationship with the Gold/Silver ratio.
Filtering all of that out, we have anticipated a seasonal bounce or rally due to market sentiment well biased to over-bearish, oversold conditions and the seasonal pattern (on average) for SPX that has turned up, as per this graphic first presented in NFTRH 779 on October 15.
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