Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
I find this fascinating: examine the symbol FR:T10Y2Y, the 10 year rate minus the 2 year rate. This concoction has done a crackerjack job of predicting every single recession, and the most recent is no exception. I have tinted each instance when this data point went negative, and then reversed, to highlight the “V” bounce in this spread.
As poorly as precious metals have done since August 6th, silver has remained relatively frisky. Compared to gold, it has been doing great lately. Here is the SLV/GLD ratio chart.
Long-time readers know how fond I am of metaphors and analogs. I have one to offer today, and it has to do with permafrost.
US Bonds have been breaking down for about a year now, and although there will be small bounces along the way, the pattern is fairly clear. The next meaningful resistance is the price gap on TLT at 155.66:
Now that the runoff is complete, it seems like the market is anticipating much higher interest rates (which the banks are gobbling up with gusto). Witness the absolutely demise of bonds taking place right now by way of TLT:
