Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Still Only 1 of 3 Macro Amigos to Destination

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It’s the happy-go-lucky 3 Amigos (in play since we began this goofy metaphor last fall), which would signal macro changes to come. When you are talking about the macro however, things move slowly and to date, only one of our riders has made it to his destination.

To review, they are Amigos 1-3, Chevy, Steve, and Martin.

  1. Stocks vs. Gold
  2. 10yr & 30yr Yields
  3. The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve

Below we’ll review a daily (short-term) and monthly (long-term) chart of each to check the status.

Amigo #1: Stocks vs. Gold

We noted Amigo #1’s eyes closed as stocks vs. gold took a big plunge in early February and again in March. This has actually set a lower highs, lower lows downtrend in 2018, and the swings have been very dynamic. Right now we are on an up swing and if you are a gold bug and this ratio rises above the March high please prepare to take caution, as the macro would be moving against you, at least relative to risk ‘on’ assets. But for now the lower highs and lower lows daily trend is intact. (more…)

Five Months Of Nothin’

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Good morning, Slopers, and greetings from oh-so-dark Palo Alto. My dogs gaze at me longingly for their walk, so I’ll just send this out and get the day rolling.

Before I begin, let me say a few of you prefer to jump right into the blog posts (a la the old Slope), so I have a suggestion: bookmark this URL as your Slope page: https://slopeofhope.com/page/slope-blog.html – and that’ll take you right to the blog with the most recent at top.

Looking at the ES, it’s interesting that over a period of five months, we have gone…………….nowhere. Sure, there’s been volatility (albeit ever-diminishing) and about a 350 point range, but just look at that arrow. With all the mayhem that’s been going on, the S&P was a little under 2700 in mid-December and it’s a little under 2700 right now. It’s getting dull again!

esflat (more…)

Night Shift

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Good evening, everyone……….

Me and my fellas are hard at work (it’s been continuous since Friday) working on optimization, uptime, and reliability. I have probably accrued a dozen posts to write about the insanity we’ve been going through. It reminds me the old days at Prophet. You might as well put me in a trench with grenades going off around me, because that’s what it feels like, but I sure am glad to have my colleagues at my side. And we are making some GREAT strides this evening.

Out of the corner of one eye I’m watching the night time markets, and of profound interest to me is bonds, whose failed bullish breakout is mesmerizing. It’s not like there’s a dramatic plunge – about one third of a percent as I’m typing this – but an ultimate break of 141’13 on that horizontal would be spectacular to behold.

ZBDD

10-Year Yield: From A 35-Year Bear Market To A Generational Bull Market

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From Mike Paulenoff: In early March, 10-year yield was circling 2.87%. Now it is circling 3.00% for the first time in 4 years. The increase is probably shocking to many analysts and investors. Neither economic nor inflation data provide adequate justification for yield to be higher than it was two months ago. But there are times when the contradicting longer-term technical set-up should be heeded, even when the trend lacks strong support from lagging tabular data.

4 29 18 Monthly YIELD GIF

In scanning the past few months of U.S. economic data – such as Retail Sales, New Home Sales, Personal Spending, Consumer Prices, Non-farm Payrolls – what jumps out is the variability of the data. Most of these data series reflect a zig-zag pattern that belies a consistently strong directional economic impulse.

On April 27th, investors received their first look at the advance estimate of Q1, 2018 GDP, which came in at 2.3% compared with consensus estimates of 1.8% to 2.0%. More surprising, perhaps, was the subdued Q1 Price Index at 2.0% versus estimates of 2.4%, although the inflation gauge did remain at the Fed’s 2% target. (more…)