Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

From Our Contrary Perch, an Update on Bonds

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[edit] Today I took profit (principal & interest) on 7-10 year Treasury fund IEF in order to concentrate on the shorter end of the curve for ‘cash equivalent’ income.

[edit 2] I know TK gets a kick out of this picture, so here it is again! (Editor’s note: get this man a lozenge!!)

gross2

With all due respect to Bill, Ray and Paul the play has been for a contrary move in bonds with our 3 leading experts emblematic of the media’s habit of pointing the investing herds the wrong way at the wrong time. Making myself clear again, I don’t dispute the potential – even likelihood – that a bond bear market began in 2016. But I do dispute every single call out there that it has been technically proven. (more…)

Bonds and Related Indicators, From NFTRH 490

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This morning’s post highlighting Jim Grant’s bond market/interest rate views (by way of Heisenberg) prompts me to reproduce publicly NFTRH 490‘s short bond segment. I may be known as the guy calling yields to decline but in context I am the guy calling for caution at a potential limit area who has appropriately called for yields to rise and decline all through the bond market’s recent history. It is important not to get lost in bias or dogma.

Bonds and Related Indicators

Long-term yields lurk just below our targets of 3.3% (30yr) and 2.9% (10yr). The yields on the short end remain relatively strong as evidenced by the flattening yield curve. This remains a positive macro picture (whether manipulated or not, my job is to play it straight and convey the message of the bond market, not to wear my tin foil hat).

treasury yields (more…)