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Amongst my watch lists is one I rarely bother viewing called Rates, where I’ve got 21 different interest rate charts. I wandered in there today and noticed something quite interest: rates seem to be forming their own very impressive topping patterns, similar to what happened before Covid.
If these patterns complete – – and, for the government’s sake, I hope they do – – it would seem to me interest rates are about to go into a free-fall.
Let’s keep an eye on bonds (and, by way of extension, interest rates). The rally in bonds seems to be petering out.
So remember, boys ‘n’ girls, an inverted yield curve has 100% prediction success with respect to recessions, but you’re supposed to believe that this time, which is the most severe one ever, is going to magically be different.
The bonds, by way of TLT (shown below) keep slipping as the symmetric triangle suggested.
