Killer Longs
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
These Rare Depths of Complacency
Allow me to present to you over a third of a century of volatility data, which is everything I’ve got to show. I have tinted all the instances in which doe-eyed complacency has been at, or lower, than the risible present price levels. My point is simple. This will not sustain. It never has.
The Long View of Equity Returns
Here is an interesting long-term perspective, showing which markets have done the best (left side) and worst (right side) over many decades. As you can see, the US is on top for this year and last, whereas is was quite weak in 2022 (those were the days!)
Worldwide Weakness
While dreaming up ratio charts, I stumbled upon EFA/DIA, which is equities outside North America divided by the Dow Jones 30 ETF. This succinctly shows how the United States has blasted the rest of the world to smithereens. It’s actually kind of jaw-dropping, a la Japan in 1989. Of course, we know how well that worked out.
Strange Days on US Treasuries
In my last post on oil and natural gas I was talking about starting to do a post every week or two reviewing a single instrument that I cover in my futures and currencies charts on multiple timeframes to sketch out the higher probability paths going forward. This is the first of those posts, apart obviously from my earlier posts on oil and nat gas. I’ll be aiming to do one of these posts every week.
This week I’m going to look at a very important inflection point that looks likely to be coming up on US treasuries over the next few months to a year. I wrote in January on the TNX daily chart below that I was expecting a possible topping pattern to form, either a double top or an H&S after a test of the obvious possible H&S neckline at 32.53.
(more…)