A few days ago, silver (SLV, below) successfully tested its neckline, which was the top of the bullish base it had formed.

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A few days ago, silver (SLV, below) successfully tested its neckline, which was the top of the bullish base it had formed.


After the past couple of weeks of the market being beaten down due to Middle East tensions, the fact that things have simmered down is all that it took to cause a rally. I welcome the rally, and I hope it’s a huge one, but I’ve got to say a couple of things: (a) I fear the rally going take a long while, which is a drag for an impatient chap like me sitting on buying power (b) I’m surprised how utterly FEEBLE the rally is right now, with just a little bounce taking place, indistinguishable from all the others that formed during the midst of the selloff itself. It’s pathetic, bulls!

NFTRH is a top-down macro entity. It is not a stock pick rag, a technical analysis junkie, a market psychologist or a monetary/fiscal policy obsessive. It is all of those things, as needed. But primarily what we do is define the macro and then continually update the definition because it is always progressing, shifting, cycling and changing. From that work we then try to take it from ‘top-down’ definition and apply it to investment strategies.
I sometimes bristle at the hype that emanates from the precious metals sphere coming in the form of gold bug doctrine, perma-cheerleading, lecturing and rigid thinking. That is because like it or not, the macro is always shifting and doctrine or not, the macro shifted away from the precious metals in 2012 and only began recovering a gold-positive view in 2018. Since then, it’s been a volatile process with incomplete macro fundamentals.
(more…)Gold is getting all the glory, but his little brother silver is doing great as well. Check out the basing pattern and the breakout on April 3rd. As with gold, I truly expect this to sink at some point, and if we can get anywhere near that horizontal again, it will be a fantastic buy!
